Oil Prices Climb Amid Fragile US-Iran Talks and Ongoing Supply Uncertainty
By Anmol Choubey
Market Reactions and Geopolitical Developments
May 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Tuesday as negotiations to end the war between the United States and Iran appeared fragile, with Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal highlighting stark differences that kept supply concerns alive.
Oil Price Movements
Brent crude futures were up 30 cents, or 0.29%, at $104.51 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 31 cents, or 0.32%, to $98.38 by 0002 GMT. Both benchmarks increased nearly 2.8% on Monday.
US-Iran Negotiations and Key Disagreements
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support," pointing to disagreements over several demands, such as the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, the removal of a U.S. naval blockade, the resumption of Iranian oil sales, and compensation for war damage.
Strait of Hormuz and Supply Risks
Tehran also emphasized sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
"As long as the US-Iran negotiations remain inconclusive and physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz stay restricted, we should see prices holding above $100," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, in an email.
"A genuine breakthrough toward a peace deal could trigger a sharp $8–12 correction, while any escalation or renewed blockade threats would quickly push Brent back toward $115+," he said.
OPEC Output and Export Disruptions
Disruptions linked to near-closure of the strait have prompted producers to curtail exports, with a Reuters survey on Monday showing OPEC oil output in April fell to its lowest level in over two decades.
Saudi Aramco's Warning
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on Monday that disruptions to oil exports through the strait may delay a return to market stability until 2027, with the loss of about 100 million barrels of oil per week.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and International Shipments
Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced plans on Monday to loan 53.3 million barrels of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of efforts to temper the oil market.
Ship-tracking data showed that a shipment of crude from the U.S. SPR is en route to Turkey, marking the first such delivery to the Mediterranean nation.
Sanctions and Military Actions
At the same time, just days ahead of Trump's planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Washington imposed sanctions on three individuals and nine companies, including firms based in Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, for facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.
UAE Military Strikes on Iran
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that the UAE conducted military strikes on Iran, including an attack in early April targeting a refinery on Iran's Lavan Island. The UAE has not publicly acknowledged the strikes, the report said.
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonali Paul)
