Analysts Expect High Oil Prices Amid Strait of Hormuz Supply Fears

Market Reactions and Analyst Forecasts on Oil Prices

March 2 (Reuters) - Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated over the coming days while markets focus on the impact of escalating Middle East conflict on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for more than 20% of global oil.

Citi and Goldman Sachs Projections

• Citi's Short-Term and De-escalation Scenarios

  • Citi sees Brent crude trading between $80 and $90 a barrel over the coming week at least, they said in a note
  • Prices are expected to pull back to $70 a barrel on de-escalation, Citi said.

• Goldman Sachs Risk Premium Estimates

  • Goldman Sachs estimates an $18 per barrel real-time risk premium in crude prices, the bank said in a note on Sunday. It expects this to moderate to a $4 premium if only 50% of flows through the Strait of Hormuz are halted for a month.
  • In a scenario where flows halt for one month, it is likely that the TTF and JKM benchmark gas prices could climb by 130% to approach 74 euros per megawatt hour ($25/mmBtu), Goldman said.

Wood Mackenzie and OPEC+ Insights

• Wood Mackenzie Supply Shock Analysis

  • Wood Mackenzie said that oil prices could exceed $100 a barrel if tanker flows through the strait are not restored quickly.

  • Dual Supply Shock Explanation

    • "The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only are current exports through the Strait halted, but OPEC+ additional volumes and ultimately most of OPEC’s spare capacity - typically a key lever for balancing the global oil market - are inaccessible while the waterway remains closed," WoodMac analysts said in a note.

• OPEC+ Output Decisions

  • OPEC+ has agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) for April.

JPMorgan and Societe Generale Assessments

• JPMorgan's Export and Supply Coverage Estimates

  • JPMorgan says crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have slumped to about 4 million bpd from the usual 16 million, with flows limited to Iranian barrels as tanker traffic dries up
  • Gulf producers have storage and tanker capacity to cover 25 days of stranded supply, JPMorgan estimates.
  • The bank said that a 3–4 week restriction through the Strait of Hormuz could force Gulf Cooperation Council output shut‑ins and lift Brent crude above $100 a barrel.

• Societe Generale's Price Spike Scenario

  • Societe Generale analysts said on Monday that the most likely scenario for oil prices is a short-lived spike followed by a partial retracement as markets judge supply continuity to be credible

Bernstein and Macquarie Group Perspectives

• Bernstein's Revised Price Assumptions

  • Bernstein raised its 2026 Brent oil price assumption from $65 to $80 a barrel, but sees prices reaching $120-$150 in an extreme case of prolonged conflict.

• Macquarie Group's Global Energy Outlook

  • Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, said the world could handle the Strait of Hormuz being shut in for one or two weeks, but the impact on oil price would escalate rapidly after a third week and definitely after a fourth.

(Reporting by Kavya Balaraman, Ishaan Arora, Pablo Sinha, Anmol Choubey, and Anjana Anil; Editing by Sonali Paul and David Goodman)