Finance
New Zealand's Economic Recovery Delayed but Not Derailed, Finance Minister Says
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 23, 2026
2 min readLast updated: April 23, 2026
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New Zealand’s post‑pandemic economic rebound faces delays due to elevated fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict, but Finance Minister Nicola Willis affirms the recovery remains intact, with inflation projections ranging from 3.9 % to 7.4 % depending on oil price scenarios.
New Zealand says oil shock delays economy's recovery but does not derail it
Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Outlook in New Zealand
By Lucy Craymer and Renju Jose
Economic Recovery and Oil Price Scenarios
WELLINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - New Zealand's economic recovery has been delayed but not derailed, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said on Thursday after the Iran conflict lifted fuel costs and dented business and consumer sentiment.
Best-Case and Worst-Case Inflation Scenarios
Willis said Treasury's best-case scenario has inflation at 3.9% in the current fiscal year ending June 30 if oil averages $110 a barrel.
A worst-case path of oil at $180 could push inflation to 7.4%, though she called that highly unlikely.
Current Inflation and Interest Rate Implications
Annual inflation rate is currently at 3.1%, above the central bank's 1%–3% target band, increasing the likelihood of further interest-rate hikes later this year.
Government Response and Economic Update
"The (best-case) scenario looks the most likely. If that does remain the case, it means we face some significant short-term challenges and heightened medium-to-long-term risks," Willis told reporters while presenting an economic update.
"What we are presenting to you is a picture of an economy that has been disrupted but not derailed and will continue to grow this year."
Recent Economic Performance
New Zealand's economy returned to growth in the second half of last year but growth remains weak.
Credit Rating and Fiscal Outlook
Credit rating agency Moody's downgraded New Zealand's rating outlook to "negative" from "stable" on Wednesday, citing increased risks to its fiscal trajectory amid global uncertainties but affirmed the nation's top-tier 'Aaa' rating.
Upcoming Budget and Forecasts
The New Zealand government will release updated forecasts for GDP, inflation and unemployment when it presents its budget on May 28.
(Reporting by Lucy Craymer in Wellington and Renju Jose in Sydney; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Edwina Gibbs)
Key Takeaways
- •Economic recovery delayed, not derailed — Finance Minister Nicola Willis underscores resilience amid oil‑price shock.
- •Treasury’s worst‑case inflation forecast reaches 7.4 % if oil averages US $180/bbl; best‑case scenario: 3.9 % at US $110/bbl.
- •Current inflation sits at around 3.1 % (March quarter), above target, and global risks from Iran conflict add further uncertainty.
Frequently Asked Questions about New Zealand's economic recovery delayed but not derailed, finance minister says
1What has delayed New Zealand’s economic recovery?
New Zealand's economic recovery has been delayed due to an oil shock from the Iran conflict, which pushed up fuel prices and reduced business and consumer sentiment.
2What inflation rates are projected for New Zealand?
Treasury forecasts inflation could reach 7.4% in the 2025/26 fiscal year under a worst-case oil price scenario, or 3.9% under a best-case scenario.
3How is the Iran conflict affecting New Zealand’s economy?
The Iran conflict has caused a surge in global oil prices, directly affecting New Zealand by increasing fuel costs and souring economic sentiment.
4Who commented on New Zealand’s economic outlook?
Finance Minister Nicola Willis commented on the economic outlook, noting recovery delays but maintaining that it is not derailed.
5Is a worst-case oil price scenario likely for New Zealand?
Finance Minister Nicola Willis indicated it is highly unlikely that oil prices would reach the worst-case scenario levels anticipated in Treasury forecasts.