Morning bid: Trump says war is 'very complete' - iran has other ideas

Global Finance Markets React to Trump, Iran War, and Oil Price Swings

Market Reactions and Economic Impacts

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter:

Renewed Geopolitical Tensions

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, the White House has ominously declared that everything will be back to normal soon.

While global stocks have largely sustained the relief rally that followed Monday's wild swings, fear is again resurfacing as Iran vowed to step up its missile strikes.

Statements from Leaders

President Donald Trump's assurance that the war with Iran was "very complete" and could be "over soon" initially injected optimism into markets, even as Iranian hardliners rallied behind new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and said their blockade of oil would continue.

Within hours of Trump's statements, Iran's military dashed markets' hopes. "We are the ones who will determine the end of the war," Iran's Revolutionary Guards said.

Such comments brought the exchange back to a familiar tempo with Trump then threatening to hit Iran "TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far."

Oil and Stock Market Movements

Oil Price Volatility

As traders parsed the volleys of threats, Brent crude futures fell as much as 11% to lows of $88.05 per barrel, before paring their decline to 4.8%.

Stock Market Performance

Stocks for their part have mostly held their ground amid signs of increased risk-taking by retail investors. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.1%, while South Korea's Kospi surged as much as 6.6%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 2.2%, trimming losses sustained since the start of the conflict.

And the rally looked set to continue in early Europe trade with pan-region futures up 1.0%, German DAX futures gaining 1.0%, and FTSE futures edging up 0.4%.

U.S. equity futures, however, were more subdued, with S&P 500 e-mini futures EScv1 down 0.5% to pare Monday's rebound.

Global Economic Updates

China's Export Growth

Elsewhere on Tuesday, data showed China's export growth quickened in January-February, keeping the world's second-largest economy on track to top its record $1.2 trillion trade surplus over the course of 2026.

Vietnam's Response to Oil Disruptions

And almost five years to the day since swathes of the global economy were shut off to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam's trade ministry said it was again calling on local businesses to encourage their employees to work from home - this time as part of efforts to save on fuel amid supply disruptions and price surges triggered by the Iran war.

Key Developments to Watch

Company Earnings

Major Reports

Oracle, Volkswagen, Persimmon, Kohl's

Economic Events

Germany Trade Balance

Germany: Trade balance for January

Debt Auctions

Germany Government Debt

Germany: 2-year government debt

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Sam Holmes)