Finance
Morning bid: Middle east tumult leaves markets in disarray
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 6, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 6, 2026
Quick Summary
Middle East war is roiling markets—oil and gas prices have surged sharply while Asian stocks are headed for their biggest weekly slump in six years. Investors await U.S. nonfarm payrolls amid growing inflation and hawkish rate fears.
Middle East Conflict Sparks Turbulence in Global Markets and Energy Prices
Market Reactions and Economic Impacts
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee
Stock Market Movements
So U.S. and European stock futures pushed higher on Friday while Asian stocks pared early losses, presumably on a minor retreat in oil prices as the U.S. government mulls intervening in the futures market to blunt the surge.
Uncertainty Over U.S. Intervention
How that will work, however, remains a question. Trying to distort a derivative when the physical product is in short supply doesn't seem particularly wise.
Geopolitical Tensions and Their Effects
That aside, war in the Middle East rages on, upending everything from shipping to air travel and business activity.
Political Involvement
Ever eager to involve himself in world affairs, U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted to have a say in deciding Iran's next leader.
Investor Sentiment and Market Volatility
It's been a turbulent week for markets, as investors swung between wishful thinking and sheer panic over the potential length and severity of the conflict.
Energy Market Fallout
The fallout of the war has been felt most acutely in the energy market, with oil headed for its largest weekly gain since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Inflation and Central Bank Responses
Fears of a resurgence in inflation remained at the forefront of the minds of investors, who have quickly moved to price in more hawkish rate expectations across major central banks, sending yields higher.
Asian Market Performance
Stocks in Asia, meanwhile, were headed for their largest weekly fall in six years.
Upcoming U.S. Economic Data
With so much going on, one could almost forget that U.S. nonfarm payrolls are due later in the day.
Expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls
Expectations are for the world's largest economy to have added 59,000 jobs in February after accelerating by 130,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is forecast to have held steady at 4.3%.
Potential Labour Market Disruptions
While it may be too early to see concrete evidence of AI-related labour market disruption, the report will still be closely scrutinised for warning signs, including weak job growth, or even net job losses, and an unwelcome rise in unemployment.
Key Events to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls (February)
- Federal Reserve's Daly, Paulson, Collins, Hammack speak
(Editing by Jamie Freed)
Key Takeaways
- •Brent crude has surged ~12% since March 2, with gas up ~50%, fueling inflation concerns and raising U.S. pump prices by 11¢—largest daily jump since 2022 (lemonde.fr)
- •Asia-Pacific stocks are facing their steepest weekly losses in six years—South Korea’s Kospi down around 10‑10.5%, Japan’s Nikkei around 6‑6.5%—amid turmoil from energy disruptions and the stronger dollar (brecorder.com)
- •U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February—expected +59,000 jobs and unemployment steady at 4.3%—take on elevated importance as markets grapple with stagflation risks and AI‑linked labor shifts (brecorder.com)
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Morning Bid: Middle East tumult leaves markets in disarray
1How is the Middle East conflict affecting global markets?
The conflict is disrupting various sectors, including shipping, air travel, and business, causing increased market volatility and impacting global energy prices.
2Why are oil prices surging following the Middle East turmoil?
Oil prices are climbing sharply due to fears of supply disruptions from the ongoing conflict, with additional volatility as the US considers market intervention.
3How are investors responding to the current market environment?
Investors are reacting with uncertainty, shifting between optimism and panic, and pricing in more hawkish rate expectations from major central banks.
4What are the market's expectations for the latest US nonfarm payroll report?
Economists expect the US added 59,000 jobs in February, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, though close scrutiny remains on signs of labor market weakness.
5Which markets have been most affected this week?
Asian stocks have suffered their largest weekly fall in six years, while energy markets are experiencing significant gains amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
