Global Markets Rise on Peace Hopes Despite Ongoing Iran Tensions
Market Reactions and Economic Impacts Amid Iran Conflict
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee
Hope for Resolution in Iran War
Markets are back to hoping for a resolution to the Iran war, seizing on a few positive words from Washington and Tehran, even as both sides said they remain far apart on the critical issues of nuclear enrichment and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Stocks rose after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been "some good signs" in talks to end the nearly three-month-old war.
Conflicting Messages and Market Uncertainty
However, he also said any deal that involved Iran imposing a toll system in the crucial strait would be unacceptable, and Iran's Supreme Leader ordered that the country's near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad.
The conflicting messages out of the U.S. and Iran have added to uncertainty, keeping the U.S. dollar near a six-week high on safe-haven demand, and with investors pricing in higher rates in much of the world because of inflation.
Interest Rate Expectations and Bond Yields
Bond yields were relatively calm on Friday after surging across the world earlier this week due to shifting interest rate expectations. Markets are pricing in the prospect of hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year.
Asian Central Banks Respond to Oil Shock
In Asia, where the oil shock has hit hardest, central banks have already started to move, with Indonesia surprising markets earlier this week with a jumbo hike that provided temporary relief to the rupiah.
The Philippine central bank is considering an off-cycle hike as its move in April "didn't seem enough", its governor said.
European Economic Data and Retailer Earnings
Upcoming Economic Events in Europe
Europe's calendar is filled with economic data and a sentiment survey from Germany that may provide investors with a better sense of the deep impact from the Middle East war.
Impact on Retail and Consumer Spending
Earnings from Walmart showed how the oil shock has sent bargain-hunting shoppers flocking to the retailer's low-priced groceries and essentials. U.S. retailers have flagged growing pressure on consumer spending this year.
Key Developments to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
• Economic events: Germany Q1 GDP, UK retail sales for April, Germany Ifo business sentiment survey for May
(By Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Sonali Paul)
