Morning Bid: BOJ Open to Tightening, Mum on Timing

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

It’s been a relatively calm start to the week for markets with the early action in currencies, as the dollar nudged up on the yen after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda again left investors guessing on the timing of rate hikes.

While he left the door open for gradual tightening should the economy develop in line with the central bank’s outlook, he made no mention of whether a hike would come in December.

That disappointed many in the markets. When the Ueda event was announced on Friday, the markets had assumed it was arranged because he had something to say on policy, rather than just sticking to the old script. As a result, pricing for a December hike to 0.5% stayed at 54%, although that move is not fully priced until March.

The dollar’s gain was a modest 0.4%, to 154.78 yen, leaving it wedged between support at 153.86 and resistance around 156.76.

The outlook for U.S. rates is only a little clearer, with futures implying a 62% chance the Federal Reserve will cut next month following Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish turn last week.

At least seven Fed officials are due to speak this week and dealers assume they will sound cautious on speedy cuts.

President-elect Donald Trump’s choice for Treasury Secretary could have an influence should he get someone committed to sweeping tariffs and debt-funded tax cuts.

The NY Times reported Trump had added former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and billionaire Marc Rowan to the list of candidates, along with Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick, the latter apparently Elon Musk’s preferred pick.

A host of ECB speakers are also on the docket this week, while inflation data in the UK and Canada should help to inform the outlook for rate cuts there. Early PMIs for November are due on Friday and could hint at how sentiment globally has fared following the Trump victory.

For Wall Street, all eyes are on Nvidia results on Wednesday, where options imply the prospect of a near 9% move in its share price depending on the outcome. Analysts see Nvidia increasing third-quarter revenue by more than 80%, to $32.9 billion.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

– Euro zone trade data for Sept

– Appearances by ECB President Christine Lagarde, ECB chief economist Philip Lane, ECB board member Claudia M Buch, ECB vice president Luis de Guindos,

– Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)