Iran Strikes Highlight Chances for North Korea to Restart Nuclear Talks with Trump

Impact of Iran Strikes on North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions and Diplomatic Prospects

By Heejin Kim and Sebin Choi

SEOUL, March 2 (Reuters) - U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran will reinforce the nuclear ambitions of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, say experts and former officials, as attention focuses on whether he might return to negotiations with President Donald Trump.

Talks to tackle Pyongyang's arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, subject to heavy international sanctions, broke down despite summits between Kim and Trump in 2018 and 2019, but the attacks on Iran could spur it to reconsider.

The Iran strikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, come two months after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, another leader without a nuclear deterrent, was captured in a raid by U.S. special forces ordered by Trump. 

North Korea's Perception of U.S. Military Actions

"Kim must have thought Iran was attacked like that because it didn't have nuclear weapons," said Song Seong-jong, a professor at Daejeon University and a former official of South Korea's Defence Ministry. 

The military operation was inevitable, given the "hegemonic and rogue" nature of the United States, a spokesperson for North Korea's foreign ministry said in a statement published by state media on Sunday.

Kim Jong Un's Nuclear Strategy and Openness to Talks

Just a few days before the attack, Kim had pledged to build more nuclear weapons at a ruling party congress last week, though he left the door open for more talks, depending on Washington's attitude.

"If the United States withdraws its policy of confrontation with North Korea by respecting our country's current status ... there is no reason why we cannot get along well with the U.S.," state news agency KCNA cited Kim as saying.       

Trump has repeatedly said he would like to hold fresh talks, prompting speculation the two leaders could meet when he travels to China from March 31 to April 2.

Preemptive Strikes and Nuclear Deterrence

The Trump Administration's Approach

"The lesson the Trump administration wants pariah states to take is clear; stop threatening America and its allies and make a deal before it is too late," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Nonetheless, North Korea is far more advanced than Iran in nuclear warhead development and delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, he said. 

North Korea's Nuclear Doctrine

In 2022, North Korea officially enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes in a law that Kim said made its nuclear status "irreversible".

Renewed talks with the United States have been a low priority for Kim, however, said Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"President Trump's willingness to use military force and threats for negotiating leverage must make Kim nervous and less likely to hastily seek talks," added the former U.S. special envoy during six-party talks on the North's nuclear programme.

But Kim's heightened threat perception could push him back to the negotiating table, some analysts said.

"Unlike Iran, it's impossible to denuclearise North Korea," said Cho Han-bum, at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, citing the scattering of nuclear sites across the isolated state.

North Korea is reckoned to have assembled about 50 warheads and possess enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think-tank estimated last year.

Managing Relations with Trump

Potential for Renewed Negotiations

There could still be a window of opportunity for talks if Kim seeks "to leverage his personal rapport with President Trump to explore Washington's position on North Korea, while at the same time buying time to further advance the country’s nuclear capabilities," said Yang Moo-jin, professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies.

Kim may consider a conditional meeting with Trump if the United States acknowledges North Korea's nuclear status, said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Sookmyung Women's University and a former head of a think-tank at South Korea's spy agency.

The Role of China and Russia

The North Korean leader is also likely to believe his ties with China and Russia offer protection, Nam said.

In September, Kim made a rare trip by armoured train to Beijing, where he stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at a major military parade.

Assurances to the United States

Despite such ties, Kim may still want to reassure Trump that he will not use nuclear weapons against the United States, said Ko Young-hwan, a North Korean diplomat-turned-defector who has advised the South Korean government. 

"The incident in Iran must have made him think he should manage relations with the United States better." 

(Reporting by Heejin Kim and Sebin Choi, Additional reporting by Joyce Lee and Hwawon Lee; Editing by Ed Davies and Clarence Fernandez)