German Industrial Output Declines Despite Strong Export Growth

Overview of German Trade and Industry

By Maria Martinez

Export Performance

Feb 6 (Reuters) - German exports rose more than expected in December thanks to a rise in shipments to the United States and China but industrial output fell during the period, official data showed on Friday, highlighting continued uncertainty over recovery in Europe's biggest economy.

Industrial Production Trends

German exports rose by 4.0% on the previous month in December, surpassing a forecast 1% increase in a Reuters poll. 

Economic Implications

Exports to the U.S. increased by 8.9%, but compared with December 2024, they were down 12.9% on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, showing how a 15% U.S. tariff on most EU goods is weighing on exports.

German trade in 2025 was more or less saved because demand from European countries rose noticeably, said Volker Treier, head of global trade at the German Chamber of Commerce DIHK.

"This shows how necessary a German and European economic policy geared toward competitiveness is now," Treier said.

Compared with November 2025, calendar and seasonally adjusted exports to EU countries rose by 3.1%, while exports to countries outside the EU increased by 5.0%.

Exports to China rose by 10.7%, while imports increased by 4.1% on the month.

Imports rose by 1.4% on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis compared with November.

With imports rising at a slower pace than exports, the foreign trade balance expanded to a surplus of 17.1 billion euros ($20.2 billion) in December from a surplus of 13.6 billion euros in November. 

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DASHES RECOVERY HOPES

By contrast, German industrial production fell more than expected in December by 1.9% compared with the previous month, another data release showed on Friday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.3% fall.

"The slump in German industrial production in December pours cold water on the hopes of an industrial recovery," said Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics.

On Thursday, data showed German industrial orders rose unexpectedly in December, posting their biggest increase in two years driven by volatile large-scale orders and pointing to a potential upswing in the making.

Industry is unlikely to contribute significantly to German economic growth, at least at the beginning of this year, said Ralph Solveen, senior economist at Commerzbank.

"This week's German macro data shows that we are still in the build-up phase of the ketchup bottle effect, with order books quickly filling but production still lagging behind," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. "It is only a matter of time before industrial production catches up."

($1 = 0.8477 euros)

(Additional reporting by Anastasiia Kozlova and Cian Muenster in GdanskEditing by Ludwig Burger and Toby Chopra)