Factbox-Trump's tariff refunds may total up to $182 billion, estimates find

Trump's Tariff Refunds Could Reach $182 Billion, Estimates Show

Analysis of Tariff Refunds and Revenue Estimates

WASHINGTON, March 5 (Reuters) - A federal judge on Wednesday ordered the U.S. government to begin paying refunds of President Donald Trump's emergency tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court deemed illegal in late February. This could ultimately return $168 billion to $182 billion to importers, budget analysts estimate.

The mechanism for doing that is far from clear, but Court of International Trade Senior Judge Richard Eaton ordered the Customs and Border Protection agency to report on Friday its initial ideas for a refund plan that would avoid thousands of individual lawsuits.

"I want to make it clear to the customs service that they have to refund any money that was unlawfully collected," Eaton told a hearing on Wednesday.

Here is a look at estimates and official data on tariff collections:

Penn Wharton Budget Model Estimates

PENN WHARTON BUDGET MODEL

Gross Revenue from IEEPA Tariffs

Economists at this University of Pennsylvania fiscal research group estimate that CBP has collected up to $182 billion in gross revenue from tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act between February 4, 2025 and February 23, 2026.

The estimate, produced at Reuters' request, is derived from a ground-up forecasting model that cross-references tariffs on about 11,000 product categories across 233 countries.

Alternative Estimate Methodology

Penn-Wharton used an alternative method to reach a second estimate of about $177 billion in IEEPA tariff revenues. Economists arrived at that figure by calculating the percentage of total U.S. Treasury customs receipts that were IEEPA tariffs through December 14, then applying that same share to later customs receipts.

CBP last reported $133.5 billion in IEEPA tariff assessments on December 14.

Budget Lab at Yale University Findings

IEEPA Tariff Revenue Projections

BUDGET LAB AT YALE UNIVERSITY

IEEPA tariff revenue through February 19 totaled $168 billion, based on forward projections of the CBP assessments data through December 14, putting the Yale group slightly lower than the PWBM estimates.

Inflation-Adjusted Customs Revenue Impact

The Yale group estimated that as of January 2026, all tariffs imposed by Trump in 2025 raised the average inflation-adjusted customs revenue by $194.8 billion above the 2022-2024 average. This includes an increase of $174.7 billion over the course of 2025 and $20.1 billion in January 2026.

Effective Tariff Rate Before Supreme Court Ruling

The Yale lab said that it had calculated a 9.9% effective U.S. tariff rate prior to the Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs.

Estimates of Temporary Tariff Revenue

Section 122 Tariffs and Revenue Projections

ESTIMATES OF TEMPORARY TARIFF REVENUE

After the Supreme Court ruling, the Trump administration imposed a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and announced it would rise to 15%.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the 10% tariff would generate about $35 billion of net new revenue over the 150 days it is allowed to be in effect under the law, rising to about $50 billion at a 15% rate.

Long-Term Revenue Scenarios

Congress would have to approve any extension, but if it did so, or the revenue was replicated through other tariff authorities, CRFB estimates the revenue over the next decade would exceed $900 billion at 10% or $1.3 trillion at 15%.

While in effect, the Section 122 tariffs would replace over half the revenue lost due to the Supreme Court ruling at 10% and over three-quarters at 15%, CRFB said.

Penn Wharton 10-Year Revenue Estimates

Penn Wharton estimates the 10-year total revenue from Section 122 duties somewhat higher, at $1.51 trillion assuming a 15% rate. It estimates that 2026 revenue from these duties could total $136 billion if left in place for a year.

(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)