Finance
Factbox-Analysts reassess oil price estimates as iran conflict disrupts markets
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 13, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 13, 2026
Quick Summary
Major brokerages including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have raised their 2026 oil forecasts amid Iran conflict‑driven disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz; prices remain elevated short‑term but are expected to ease later in the year.
Brokerages Adjust 2026 Oil Price Forecasts Amid Ongoing Iran Conflict
Brokerage Forecasts and Market Reactions
March 13 (Reuters) - Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, have revised their average oil price forecasts for 2026 as the war in Iran approached the two‑week mark on Friday.
Short-Term Outlook: Elevated Oil Prices
Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated in the near term as they assess the impact of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for more than 20% of global oil flows. However, they broadly anticipate prices stabilizing later in the year.
Recent Market Movements
Brent futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose to their highest since June 2022 this week, and were headed for more than 10% and 7% weekly rises respectively. [O/R]
Geopolitical Developments Impacting Oil Markets
Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed on Thursday to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as leverage against the United States and Israel, amid a Middle East conflict that continues to disrupt millions of lives and rattle energy and financial markets worldwide.
Brokerage Price Targets and Forecasts
Price Targets
Brent WTI
Brokerage Forecasts
/Agency as of
2026
2027 2026 2027
Goldman Sachs
Expects Brent to
Goldman March average $75/bbl
Sachs $77 12, 2026 and $71/bbl over
$71 $72 $67 the next three
and twelve
months,
respectively.
BMI
BMI $70 $70 $68 $68 March 12, Expects Brent to
2026 average $67/bbl
and $69/bbl in
3Q’26 and 4Q'26,
respectively.
Citi
Citi $71 $64 $68 $61 March 11, See's Brent
2026 averaging
$75/bbl in
1Q'26, $78/bbl
in 2Q'26, and
$68/bbl in 3Q’26
Bank of America (BofA)
BofA $78 $65 $73 $61 March 10, Expects Brent to
2026 average $80/bbl
in 2Q'26, but
average $65/bbl
again in 2027 as
the pre-war
surplus
re-emerges
HSBC
HSBC $80 $70 $76 $67 March 10,
2026
Macquarie
Macquarie - - - - March 6, Sees crude
2026 prices
potentially
rising to
$150/bbl or
above if the
Strait of Hormuz
remains closed
for several
weeks
UBS
UBS $72 $70 $68 $66 March 4, Expects prices
2026 to move towards
>$100/bbl and
into more severe
demand
destruction
territory of
$120+/bbl if
flows through
Hormuz remain
disrupted
Reporting and Editing
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton)
Key Takeaways
- •Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent/WTI forecasts to $71/$67 a barrel amid prolonged Hormuz disruption risk, though expects prices to retreat to $60 later in 2026 (investing.com).
- •EIA projects Brent to stay above $95 for next two months, then fall below $80 in Q3 and average ~$79 in 2026, highlighting temporary surge due to Middle East unrest (eia.gov).
- •Analysts broadly agree a geopolitical premium of $4–$10/Bbl is currently elevating oil prices, but oversupply concerns and relief in Hormuz transit could stabilize markets by year‑end (investing.com)
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Factbox-Analysts reassess oil price estimates as Iran conflict disrupts markets
1How has the Iran conflict affected Brent and WTI futures prices?
Brent and WTI futures have surged to their highest levels since June 2022, with Brent up more than 10% and WTI up over 7% weekly.
2What are brokerages predicting for average oil prices in 2026?
Brokerages forecast Brent crude averaging between $70-$80 per barrel in 2026, with volatility depending on the Strait of Hormuz status.
3What could cause oil prices to surpass $100 per barrel in 2026?
Prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices above $100 and potentially trigger demand destruction.
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