HSBC raises 2026 Brent price forecast to $95 per barrel
HSBC's Updated Oil Price Outlook and Market Impact
HSBC's Revised Forecast and Rationale
May 12 (Reuters) - HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent price forecast to $95 a barrel last week, citing a longer effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
"Our base case now assumes that Hormuz traffic and Gulf output gradually restart from mid‑June, and a return to near‑normal system-level production and flows by end‑3Q26," HSBC said in a note dated May 6.
It added that a longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post‑war refill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting a higher long‑term price anchor.
Scenario-Based Assumptions
In HSBC's scenario-based assumptions, the bank sees Brent averaging around $110 a barrel in 2026 and $85 a barrel in 2027 if a deal is only reached towards late summer but oil prices periodically correct on headlines.
Pessimistic Scenario
The bank said that in a "pessimistic" scenario where a comprehensive deal takes around six months, leaving flows heavily constrained, Brent would average $120 per barrel in 2026 and $95 per barrel in 2027.
Market Reactions and Broader Price Movements
Oil prices rose by more than 3% on Tuesday as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran on a proposal to end the war in the Middle East pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight. [O/R]
Brokerage and Agency Forecasts
Brokerage/ Brent WTI Forecasts Price
Agency as of Targets
2026 2027 2026 202
7
Goldman Sachs
Goldman $90 ($83 $85 $83 $80 April 26, Raises 4Q
Sachs previousl ($80 ($78 ($7 2026 2026
y) previo previ 5 Brent, WTI
usly) ously pre forecast
) vio to $90/$83
usl
y)
Citi
Citi $91 $75 $83 $70 April 26, Raises
2026 Brent
price
forecast
to
$110/bbl
in Q2'26,
$95/bbl in
Q3'26 and
$80/bbl in
Q4'26
ANZ
ANZ $92 $76 $88 $76 April 9,
2026
UBS
UBS - - - - April 13, Expects
2026 prices
to trade
>$150/bbl
if flows
through
Hormuz
remain
disrupted.
Sees Brent
at
$100/bbl
by
end-June
2026, $95
by
end-Sept,
$90 by
end-Dec
Macquarie
Macquarie $89.28 $74.50 $82.9 $70 March 27 If the war
3 .50 continues
until end
of June,
oil prices
may rise
to $200
Morgan Stanley
Morgan - $80 - - March 24, Expects
Stanley ($70 2026 Brent
previo
