Factbox-Goldman Sachs lifts oil price forecasts on weaker Middle East output
Overview of Updated Oil Price Forecasts
April 27 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices for the fourth quarter of 2026, citing lower oil production from the Middle East.
The bank estimated that Brent crude prices will average $90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will be at $83 in the final quarter of 2026.
Key Drivers Behind the Forecast Revisions
Goldman projected that exports through the Strait of Hormuz will normalise by the end of June, later than its previous estimate of mid-May, alongside a slower recovery in Gulf oil production.
Other Major Banks' Oil Price Outlooks
Citi has raised its Brent oil price outlook for the remainder of 2026, with its base case forecast at $110, $95 and $80 a barrel for the second, third and fourth quarter of 2026, respectively.
Bull-Case Scenarios and Market Reactions
Under a bull-case scenario, the bank assumes oil flows through the strait remain disrupted through the end of June and sees Brent prices spiking to $150 a barrel.
Oil edged higher on Monday as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained, keeping global supplies tight. [O/R]
Brokerage and Agency Oil Price Forecasts
Brokerage/ Brent WTI Forecasts Price
Agency as of Targets
2026 2027 2026 202
7
Goldman Sachs
Goldman $90 $85 $83 $80 April 26, Raises 4Q
Sachs ($83 ($80 ($78 ($7 2026 2026
previo previo previ 5 Brent, WTI
usly) usly) ously pre forecast
) vio to $90/$83
usl
y)
Citi
Citi $91 $75 $83 $70 April 26, Raises
2026 Brent
price
forecast
to
$110/bbl
in Q2'26,
$95/bbl in
Q3'26 and
$80/bbl in
Q4'26
ANZ
ANZ $92 $76 $88 $76 April 9,
2026
UBS
UBS - - - - April 13, Expects
2026 prices
to trade
>$150/bbl
if flows
through
Hormuz
remain
disrupted.
Sees Brent
at
$100/bbl
by
end-June
2026, $95
by
end-Sept,
$90 by
end-Dec
Macquarie
Macquarie $89.28 $74.50 $82.9 $70 March 27 If the war
3 .50 continues
until end
of June,
oil prices
may rise
to $200
Morgan Stanley
Morgan - $80 - - March 24, Expects
Stanley ($70 2026 Brent
previo prices to
usly) remain
above
