U.S. Weighs Iran Strikes Aiming at Individual Leaders, Regime Change on Table

By Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali

U.S. Strike Options and Market Risk

WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - U.S. military planning on Iran has reached an advanced stage with options including targeting individuals as part of an attack and even pursuing regime change in Tehran, if ordered by President Donald Trump, two U.S. officials told Reuters.

The military options are the latest signs that the United States is preparing for a serious conflict with Iran should diplomatic efforts fail. Reuters first reported last week that the U.S. military is preparing for a sustained, weeks-long operation against Iran that could include striking Iranian security facilities as well as nuclear infrastructure.

The latest revelations suggest more granular, ambitious planning ahead of a decision by Trump, who has in recent days publicly floated the idea of regime change in the Islamic Republic.

The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the planning, did not offer further details on which individuals could be targeted or how the U.S. military could attempt to carry out regime change without a large ground force. 

Pursuing regime change would mark another shift away from Trump's vows during the presidential campaign to abandon what he has called the failed policies of past administrations, which included military efforts to topple governments in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Trump has assembled a massive amount of firepower in the Middle East but most of the combat capabilities are aboard warships and fighter aircraft. Any major bombing campaign could also count on support from U.S.-based bombers.

Targeted Killings and Intelligence Needs

In his first term, Trump showed a willingness to carry out targeted killings by approving a 2020 attack on Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani, who led the foreign espionage and paramilitary arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, known as the Quds Force.

The Trump administration formally labeled the IRGC a foreign terrorist organization in 2019, the first time Washington had applied the designation to another nation’s military. 

One of the U.S. officials noted Israel's success targeting Iranian leaders during its 12-day war with Iran last year. At the time, regional sources told Reuters at least 20 senior commanders were killed, including the armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri.

"The 12-day war and Israeli strikes against individual targets really showed the utility of that approach," the U.S. official said, adding that the focus was on those involved in command and control of IRGC forces.

Still, the official cautioned that targeting individuals requires additional intelligence resources. Killing a particular military commander would mean knowing their exact location and understanding who else might be harmed in the operation.

It was unclear to the officials who spoke with Reuters what intelligence the U.S. has on Iranian leaders who could potentially be targeted by the United States.

The White House and Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Regime Change Considerations

REGIME CHANGE AS A POSSIBLE GOAL

Trump has openly floated the possibility of changing the government in Iran, saying last week it "seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." He declined to say who he wanted to take over Iran, but said, "there are people."

While regime change operations have traditionally involved major movement of U.S. ground forces, Trump turned to special operations forces to oust Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, sending them to grab him from his Caracas compound last month in an audacious raid.

At the same time, the U.S. president has also held out hope for diplomacy, saying on Thursday that "really bad things" would happen if no deal were reached. He appeared to set a deadline of no more than 10 to 15 days before the U.S. might take action.

Iranian Retaliation Threats

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned it could retaliate against U.S. military bases in the region if the U.S. strikes Iranian territory.

U.S. Bases in the Region

The U.S. has bases throughout the Middle East, including in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.

Diplomacy and UN Exchanges

In a letter on Thursday to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Tehran said it would not start any war but that "in the event that it is subjected to military aggression, Iran will respond decisively and proportionately" in its exercise of the right of self-defense.

U.S. officials have told Reuters they fully expect Iran to fight back in the event of an attack, raising the risk of U.S. casualties and a regional conflict, given the number of countries that could come under fire from Iran's missile arsenal.  

Gulf of Oman Naval Drills

Oil Prices and Shipping Routes

Trump's threats to bomb Iran have pushed up oil prices, and on Thursday a Russian warship joined planned Iranian naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, a vital sea route for global energy shipments. 

THREATS TO SHUT STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint

Tehran has in the past threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked, a move that would choke off a fifth of global oil flows.

Iranian and U.S. negotiators met on Tuesday and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said they had agreed on "guiding principles." White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday, however, that the two sides remained far apart on some issues.

Iran has resisted making major concessions on its nuclear program, though insisting it is for peaceful purposes. The U.S. and Israel have in the past accused Tehran of trying to develop a nuclear bomb.

A senior U.S. official said Iran would make a written proposal on how to address U.S. concerns.

Trump called on Tehran on Wednesday to join the U.S. on the "path to peace."

"They can't have a nuclear weapon, it's very simple," he said. "You can't have peace in the Middle East if they have a nuclear weapon."

(Reporting by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Wallis)