Exclusive-US intelligence says iran government is not at risk of collapse, say sources

US Intelligence: Iran Government Not at Risk of Collapse, Sources Say

US and Israeli Military Actions and Iranian Government Stability

By Erin Banco and Jonathan Landay

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran's leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

A "multitude" of intelligence reports provide "consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger" of collapse and "retains control of the Iranian public," said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings.

The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.

Political Pressure and War Objectives

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 "soon." But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran's hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched. 

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran's clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Israeli officials in closed discussions also have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government's collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

The sources stressed that the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change. 

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

Shifting Objectives in the Conflict

US and Israeli Strikes on Iranian Targets

Since launching their war, the U.S. and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership. 

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the U.S. operation, Trump urged Iranians to "take over your government," but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran's leadership.

Leadership Changes and Regime Cohesion

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls large parts of the economy.

Still, the U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei's death retain control of the country.

The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a fourth source familiar with the matter.

Potential for Regime Change

It is unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign would topple the government. 

It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran.

Intelligence on Kurdish Militias and Internal Opposition

Consultations and Capabilities of Kurdish Militias

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran's security forces in the western part of the country. 

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that "tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms" against the government if they receive U.S. support.

Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of U.S. and Israeli strikes.

"We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas," he said.

US Intelligence Assessment of Kurdish Groups

But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments. 

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Requests for US Support and Official Responses

The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers for the U.S. to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.

But Trump said on Saturday that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran. 

(Reporting by Erin Banco in New York and Jonathan Landay in Washington; Editing by Don Durfee and Matthew Lewis)