Headlines
Exclusive-Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 1, 2026
3 min readLast updated: March 1, 2026
Quick Summary
Ahead of the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb 28, the CIA warned that if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei were killed, hardline IRGC figures would likely replace him. Intelligence scenarios offered no certainty and highlighted continuity under security elites.
CIA Saw Potential for IRGC Replacement of Khamenei After US-Iran Attacks
US Intelligence Assessments and Potential Iranian Leadership Scenarios
By Erin Banco
Background on CIA Assessments
WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he could be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said.
The agency's assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, looked broadly at what could occur in Iran following a U.S. intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic -- now a pronounced objective for Washington.
Possible Scenarios for Iranian Leadership
IRGC figures taking power was among the multiple different scenarios that emerged, a third source familiar with the matter said.
The Role of the IRGC
The IRGC is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect Shi'ite Muslim clerical rule in Iran.
The intelligence agency reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
US Policy and Strategic Considerations
President Donald Trump has for weeks signaled the U.S. was interested in seeing regime change in Iran, but has not given in any detail Washington’s thinking on who could lead the country.
In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a "terrorist regime" and encouraged the Iranian people to take over the government, saying the U.S. military strikes would set the stage for an uprising.
Deliberations and Diplomatic Efforts
The U.S. and Israeli assault comes after weeks of deliberation inside the U.S. government about whether to strike Iran following the deadly protests that broke out there in December.
U.S. officials in recent weeks have tried to strike a nuclear deal with Tehran in an attempt to stave off intervention.
Briefings and Final Decisions
In a briefing last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told top congressional lawmakers known as the Gang of Eight that a U.S. operation would likely move forward, but that Trump could change his mind, particularly if nuclear negotiations were successful. Those talks in Geneva did not result in an agreement.
Rubio notified the Gang of Eight on Friday night that the operation to attack Iran was likely to commence in the following hours but said Trump could still change his mind, two sources familiar with the matter said.
(Reporting by Erin Banco; Editing by Humeyra Pamuk and Daniel Wallis)
Key Takeaways
- •CIA produced assessment in the two weeks prior to Feb 28, concluding IRGC hardliners would likely assume leadership if Khamenei died (yahoo.com).
- •The assessments considered multiple post-strike scenarios, but did not conclude any outcome with certainty (yahoo.com).
- •CIA declined comment; the report underscores that targeting leadership may not yield regime change, as institutional continuity through IRGC remains robust (yahoo.com).
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Exclusive-Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say
1What did the CIA assess regarding Khamenei's replacement?
The CIA assessed that if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hardline IRGC figures.
2Why did the U.S. consider regime change in Iran?
The U.S. aimed for regime change in Iran, especially after deadly protests and amid nuclear negotiations, seeing potential for a new leadership.
3What role does the IRGC play in Iran?
The IRGC is an elite military force tasked with protecting Shi'ite Muslim clerical rule and maintaining the current regime in Iran.
4Did the CIA conclude any scenario with certainty?
No, the CIA did not conclude any scenario with certainty regarding regime change or leadership succession in Iran.
5Were nuclear talks with Iran successful before the attacks?
No, the Geneva nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran did not result in an agreement prior to the military operation.
