Trading
European shares, dollar higher; bitcoin above $91K
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee
LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar rose on Thursday, while longer-dated U.S. bond yields hovered near multi-month highs as investors bet that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would fuel inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer
European shares bounced from three-month lows after a number of positive earnings updates, while bitcoin jumped back above $91,000, having surpassed that level in the previous session, turbocharged by Trump’s return to the White House.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, last traded over 3% higher at $91,604, having already soared more than 30% in the last two weeks.
In the broader market, traders responded to a U.S. inflation print that was in line with expectations by adding to bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, though the monetary policy outlook for 2025 and beyond was clouded by Trump’s return to office.
Trump’s plan for lower taxes and higher tariffs is expected to spur inflation and reduce the Fed’s scope to ease interest rates, buoying the dollar.
Edison Research also projected on Wednesday that the Republican Party will control both houses of Congress when the President-elect takes office in January, which would enable Trump to pursue his agenda largely unhindered.
Uncertainty over potentially larger U.S. deficits and stickier inflation was reflected in longer-dated U.S. bond yields, which traded near multi-month highs on Thursday. [US/]
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.483% on Thursday, according to LSEG data, its highest since July 1.
The 30-year yield hovered near a five-month peak and last stood at 4.6249%.
“Even though we’re not optimistic Trump’s policies will be a big boost to growth, they will increase indebtedness and boost inflation and that could change the Fed’s plans,” said Nordea chief analyst Jan von Gerich said.
On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, touched 4.324% but was last little changed on the day at 4.2753%
Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 bps rate cut from the Fed next month, up from about 59% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
However, expectations of Fed cuts next year have been pared back following Trump’s election victory.
The dollar, meanwhile, pushed higher, ignoring the rising bets of a Fed cut in December which would typically be negative for the currency.
The dollar’s rise pushed the euro to a one-year low of $1.0496, its first time below $1.05 in over a year, and broke above the 156 yen level.
The dollar index peaked at a one-year high of 107.07.
The Australian dollar fell 0.3% to $0.6453, further pressured by a downside surprise on domestic employment.
SHARES MIXED
European share indexes were mostly higher, contrasting with declines in Asia. U.S. stock futures were adding about 0.1%
The Euro STOXX 50 rose 1.5%, while the broader STOXX 600 was up 0.8% after a number of earnings reports, including from Europe’s largest telecoms group Deutsche Telekom and tech giant ASML.
British luxury name Burberry topped gainers in Europe after announcing a turnaround plan, rising almost 20% and set for its biggest one-day gain on record.
In contrast, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.8%.
That came on the back of a fall in Chinese stocks after Trump nominated China hardliner Marco Rubio to be his secretary of state, signalling that a more hawkish stance towards Beijing could extend beyond tariffs.
The mainland CSI300 blue-chip index fell 1.7%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell a similar amount.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 2%.
“The Trump administration is taking shape and the names that are popping up are not doing anything to moderate expectations on what he’ll deliver,” said Nordea’s von Gerich.
Separately, investors have been left unimpressed by Beijing’s latest support measures to shore up China’s ailing economy, after the finance ministry unveiled tax incentives on home and land transactions on Wednesday.
China’s property market is grappling with a prolonged downturn since 2021 and remains a major drag on the world’s second-largest economy.
“If you’re considering buying a house or in the market for one, it helps, certainly. But it’s not going to change the situation itself,” said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
“It’s not going to galvanise a lot of people to start (buying) homes. The inventory overhang is still there.”
In line with the declines across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei erased early gains to last trade 0.5% lower.
Elsewhere, oil prices edged higher. Brent crude futures were up 0.5% at $72.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures traded at $68.77. [O/R]
Spot gold fell 0.8% to its lowest level in two months at $2,537 an ounce. [GOL/]
(Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Rae WeeEditing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim COghill and Gareth Jones)
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. It is typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Bond yields represent the return an investor can expect to earn from holding a bond until maturity. They are influenced by interest rates and the creditworthiness of the issuer.
A Federal Reserve rate cut refers to a decision by the U.S. central bank to lower the interest rates at which banks lend to each other, aimed at stimulating economic activity.
A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security. It operates on decentralized networks based on blockchain technology.
A stock market index is a measurement of a section of the stock market, calculated from the prices of selected stocks. It reflects the performance of a group of stocks.
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