Finance
European corporate outlook brightens as results defy worst fears
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 19, 2026
2 min readLast updated: February 19, 2026
Quick Summary
LSEG I/B/E/S shows European earnings set to fall just 0.6% in Q4 2025, an improvement from last week’s -1.1%. 57.1% of STOXX 600 reporters beat estimates, though revenues are still forecast to drop 2.4%.
European corporate outlook brightens as earnings beat bleak forecasts
By Javi West Larrañaga
European Earnings Outlook and Key Drivers
Feb 19 (Reuters) - The outlook for European corporate health has improved, the latest LSEG I/B/E/S forecasts showed on Wednesday, reflecting a softer than expected decline in results in the ongoing earnings season.
Q4 2025 Earnings Revisions
European companies are expected to report a 0.6% drop in 2025 fourth-quarter earnings, on average, according to LSEG data, an improvement from the 1.1% decrease analysts expected a week ago.
Beat Rate and Revenue Trend
Out of the 163 companies on Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index that have reported earnings to date, 57.1% reported results exceeding analyst estimates.
Revenue Decline Persists
Revenue estimates also improved, according to the LSEG data, though they are still forecast to fall 2.4%. That would confirm a trend, seen in six out of seven most recent quarters, where company earnings have outpaced revenues.
WORST FEARS NOT REALISED
Tariffs and Corporate Responses
Estimates for European companies' earnings sharply deteriorated after U.S. President Donald Trump touted plans for a wide array of tariffs in February 2025, causing unprecedented uncertainty and upending the status quo in matters of trade.
Analyst Expectation Swing
That contributed to the worsening of expectations for STOXX 600 company earnings, from around 11% growth expected before the announcement to a contraction of up to 4.2% estimated in January.
Cost Cuts and Pricing Actions
After months of companies front-loading exports, reassessing supply chain strategies, hiking prices and cutting costs, these estimates have somewhat improved, but European companies are still forecast to deliver their worst earnings performance in the past seven quarters, based on the data.
Contrast with U.S. S&P 500
The outlook for STOXX 600 companies contrasts sharply with that of U.S.-listed companies, as blended earnings of S&P 500 firms are expected to grow 13.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, according to a separate LSEG report published on Friday.
Data Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
(Reporting by Javi West Larrañaga in Gdansk; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Milla Nissi-Prussak.)
Key Takeaways
- •LSEG I/B/E/S now expects a 0.6% drop in Q4 2025 earnings, better than last week’s -1.1%.
- •Out of 163 STOXX 600 firms reporting, 57.1% beat analyst estimates.
- •Revenue forecasts improved but still point to a 2.4% year-on-year decline.
- •Earnings have outpaced revenues in six of the last seven quarters.
- •U.S. S&P 500 blended earnings are seen rising 13.6% year-on-year, widening the transatlantic gap.
Frequently Asked Questions about European corporate outlook brightens as results defy worst fears
1What is the main topic?
European corporate earnings are proving more resilient than feared, with LSEG I/B/E/S data showing a smaller Q4 2025 decline and a majority of companies beating estimates.
2How did earnings expectations change week over week?
Consensus improved from a 1.1% decline to a 0.6% decline for Q4 2025, reflecting better-than-expected results during earnings season.
3How do European results compare with U.S. companies?
While Europe still faces slight declines, S&P 500 blended earnings are expected to grow 13.6% year over year, highlighting stronger U.S. momentum.
