For Europe Inc, U.S. Tariff Reprieve Arrives With an Uncertain Catch

By Elisa Anzolin, Christoph Steitz, Emma Rumney and Dominique Patton

MILAN/FRANKFURT/LONDON/PARIS, Feb 21 (Reuters) - From European wine makers to chemical companies and distillers, the U.S. Supreme Court ruling knocking down a large part of President Donald Trump's trade tariffs comes with a sting in the tail: an even more uncertain trade outlook.

What the U.S. Tariff Ruling Means for Europe Inc

In a decision that will ripple through the global economy, the top U.S. court struck down Trump's sweeping tariffs imposed under a law meant for use in national emergencies, handing a stinging defeat to the Republican president.

But while many businesses cheered after lengthy legal battles against tariffs, European trade groups, companies and analysts worried that the ruling may make trade relations even more messy after hard-struck trade deals last year.

"This ruling ... risks creating a boomerang effect, producing further uncertainty and a freeze on orders while operators wait for a clearer regulatory framework," said Paolo Castelletti, secretary general of Italian wine association UIV.

Immediate Impacts on Exporters

The U.S. is the top market for Italian wines with some 1.9 billion euros ($2.3 billion) in exports in 2024, making up almost a quarter of Italy's total wine shipments globally.

Wine and Spirits

Many firms cautioned that Trump would likely look to other avenues to impose similar tariffs, dulling the benefit of lower levies, while the move could stoke tensions between the U.S. and major trade partners. Tariff refunds will also be hard to get.

Potential New Tariffs

Policy Outlook and Risks

Responding to the ruling, Trump announced new global tariffs of 10% for an initial 150-day period and acknowledged it was not clear if or when there would be any refunds.

'A NEW ROUND OF UNCERTAINTY'

Refunds and Compliance Unclear

Steve Ovara, chair of the International Trade Practice Group at law firm King & Spalding, said that companies his firm advises, from large U.S. manufacturers to consumer and technology groups, mostly expected any relief from tariffs to be short-lived. 

"The major issue everybody's going to be dealing with for at least the short term is some additional uncertainty," he said.

Chemicals and Pharma

Wolfgang Grosse Entrup, managing director of German chemicals and pharmaceutical lobby VCI, which represents firms like BASF, Bayer and Evonik, agreed.

"For our firms, this isn't the start of a phase of stability, but a new round of uncertainty. Anyone who believes this means the tariff conflict is over is mistaken," he said. "New tariffs based on a different legal basis are possible at any time."

Shipping and Supply Chains

Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight pricing platform Xeneta, said political risk remained for shippers, with trends to de-risk supply chains an "irreversible trend."

"The damage to many shippers' supply chains is largely done and probably won't be undone," he said.

NO 'SILVER BULLET' TO GET RID OF TARIFFS

French cosmetics association FEBEA, which has firms like L'Oreal as members, said it was "very cautious" on the ruling and would watch how the U.S. government responded, including with potential new tariffs.

"We are all used to the twists and turns on this subject of customs duties," said FEBEA secretary general Emmanuel Guichard.

Italian Agriculture Response

Massimiliano Giansanti, president of Italian farmers' group Confagricoltura, said the U.S. ruling "dismantles the entire legal basis" for Trump's tariffs, but warned it complicated things for exporters just as they were adapting to U.S. tariffs.

"All this generates deep instability at a time when we need certainty and have begun a process together with our U.S. importers," he said.

Irish Whiskey Exporters

In Ireland, whiskey exporters are waiting to see what happens next before taking action, said Eoin Ó Catháin, Director of the Irish Whiskey Association, adding political negotiations and de-escalation were more likely to resolve tariff challenges. 

"This isn't a silver bullet to get rid of tariffs," he said. "This is just another complication, it's another twist in the story."

FX Reference: $1 = €0.8490

($1 = 0.8490 euros)

(Reporting by Elisa Anzolin, Christoph Steitz, Emma Rumney; Additional reporting by Dominique Patton and Stine Jacobsen; Writing by Adam Jourdan; Editing by Nick Zieminski)