Dollar Strengthens on US-Iran Conflict, Yen Stabilized by Tokyo’s Intervention Risk
Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions and Currency Movements
By Jiaxing Li
Dollar Rises Amid US-Iran Tensions
HONG KONG, May 8 (Reuters) - The dollar started Friday's Asian session on a firm footing against most major currencies after renewed hostilities broke out between the U.S. and Iran, while the Japanese yen held largely steady following fresh verbal jawboning from Tokyo.
The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire and traded barbs again on Thursday, piling fresh pressure on a fragile month-long ceasefire as Iran reviews Washington's proposal to end the war.
Impact on Oil Prices and Risk Sentiment
Oil prices jumped, with U.S. crude futures rising as much as 3% in early trading, adding to the risk-off mood in currency markets.
The dollar index measured against key peers was a touch firmer at 98.235. The rising tensions lifted the greenback for a second day from an over two-month low struck early in the week on hopes of a peace deal, putting it on track to finish the week largely flat.
"The path towards a lasting agreement is anything but linear," wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
"Traders have had to rethink the assumptions on the trajectory of the conflict and the normalization of vessel flows through Hormuz that had been made over the last couple of sessions."
Upcoming US Economic Data
Markets are also bracing for the U.S. non-farm payrolls report later on Friday, and it may take an outlier number, particularly a sufficiently weak one, to really move the dial on dollar volatility, he added.
Performance of Other Major Currencies
Sterling and Euro Movements
Sterling traded at $1.3555, headed for its first weekly loss since March, as investors awaited local election results that could heap further political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The euro was steady at $1.1727, poised to end the week a touch firmer.
Australian and New Zealand Dollars
The Australian dollar fetched $0.72059, and the New Zealand kiwi changed hands at $0.59365, both on track to post a winning week on improved risk appetite in earlier days.
Yen Stability and Japan’s Intervention Policy
Traders remained focussed on the Japanese yen after recent interventions and verbal warnings from Tokyo kept sharp selling at bay. The yen was largely steady at 156.995 in early Asian deals and is set to end the week on a steady footing.
Japan’s Approach to Currency Intervention
Japan faces no constraints on how often it can intervene in currency markets and is in daily contact with U.S. authorities, its top currency diplomat said on Thursday, reinforcing Tokyo's resolve to defend the embattled yen.
"Against the current backdrop of elevated energy prices and rising yields, Japanese intervention can only act as a safety harness on the yen's descent, but it can't pull it to safety," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
Future Outlook for the Yen
Until macro and technical conditions change, the yen is likely to keep testing the Bank of Japan's resolve, he added.
(Reporting by Jiaxing Li in Hong KongEditing by Shri Navaratnam)
