Finance
Citi lifts aluminium 0–3 month target to $3,600 per metric ton
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 4, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 4, 2026
Quick Summary
Citi raised the London Metal Exchange (LME) 0–3 month aluminium price target to $3,600 per metric ton, up from $3,400, citing force majeure at Gulf producers amid Middle East conflict. In a bullish scenario, prices could reach $4,000/t.
Citi Raises LME Aluminium Price Forecast on Supply Disruptions in Middle East
Aluminium Market Impacted by Middle East Conflict
Citi's Revised Price Forecast
March 4 (Reuters) - Citi has raised its LME aluminium 0–3 month price target to $3,600 a metric ton, up from $3,400/t, and said prices could climb to $4,000/t in a bull-case scenario, citing supply disruptions and force majeure declarations after war broke out in Iran.
"Force majeure has now materialised at two Gulf producers, marking a clear shift from risk to realised disruption," Citi said.
Benchmark LME Aluminium Price Reaction
Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange hit its highest in nearly four years on Wednesday after Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) stopped shipments, deepening worries about the impact of the Middle East conflict on supplies of the metal, which is used widely in construction, transport and packaging.[MET/L]
Alba's Force Majeure Declaration
Alba, which operates the world's biggest aluminium smelter outside of China, declared force majeure on Wednesday, warning some customers of delays because it could not ship through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping through the Strait between Iran and Oman, which carries around one-fifth of oil consumed globally, has ground to a near halt after vessels in the area were hit by Iranian retaliatory strikes against the U.S. and Israel.
Potential Long-Term Effects and Risks
Citi said the effects of the conflict could be prolonged because of issues surrounding shipping and insurance, with container-shipped primary metal and value-added products likely to normalise more slowly than tanker-based flows, even if partial transit resumes.
It also noted risks of facility or potline instability, which could delay restarts by several months.
Other Analyst Views
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said on Monday that prices could hit $3,600 a ton if production in the region was lost for a month.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Chris Reese and Edmund Klamann)
Key Takeaways
- •Citi lifted its near‑term aluminium forecast by $200/t due to realized supply disruptions and force majeure events in the Gulf, particularly from Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) halting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
- •The firm warned that shipping and insurance constraints could prolong supply normalization, delaying deliveries of primary metal and value‑added products even if transit partially resumes.
- •Goldman Sachs sees prices could also rise to $3,600/t if regional production halts for a month, but remains bearish longer‑term due to expected global supply growth and surplus expansion.
Frequently Asked Questions about Citi lifts aluminium 0–3 month target to $3,600 per metric ton
1Why did Citi raise its LME aluminium price target to $3,600 per metric ton?
Citi raised its LME aluminium price target due to supply disruptions and force majeure at two Gulf producers following conflict in Iran.
2What is force majeure and how has it affected aluminium supplies?
Force majeure is a legal clause invoked due to unforeseeable circumstances, leading to shipment delays at Aluminium Bahrain and another Gulf producer, disrupting global aluminium supply.
3How has the Middle East conflict impacted aluminium shipping?
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted after Iranian strikes, hindering aluminium exports from the region and raising supply concerns.
4Which companies have declared force majeure on aluminium shipments?
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and another Gulf producer have declared force majeure, affecting aluminium shipments due to the ongoing conflict.
5Could aluminium prices rise further in the near term?
Citi stated that prices could reach $4,000 per metric ton in a bull-case scenario if the supply disruptions persist.