Finance
Barclays says brent could test $120/bbl if middle east tensions persist
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 6, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 6, 2026
Quick Summary
Barclays warns Brent crude could hit $120/bbl within weeks if Middle East tensions continue disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, with a tail‑risk scenario suggesting a spike to $150/bbl before month‑end. Supply bottlenecks, tanker traffic halts and oil volumes stranded at sea are tilting risks sharply u
Barclays Warns Brent Crude Could Test $120 Amid Middle East Conflict
Barclays' Analysis of Oil Market Risks and Price Projections
Potential Price Surge if Conflict Persists
March 6 (Reuters) - Barclays said on Friday that Brent crude could potentially test $120 a barrel if the Middle East conflict persists for another couple of weeks.
Comparisons to Previous Oil Market Crises
"These numbers might seem too high, especially given widespread pessimism about the oil market outlook heading into this year, but we reiterate that fundamentals are stronger and risks are bigger than the Russia-Ukraine conflict, when we saw these levels materialize," Barclays added.
Impact of Strait of Hormuz Disruption
Supply Constraints and Shipping Disruptions
Oil prices have jumped sharply as the widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, constraining Middle East supplies.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil and oil and liquefied natural gas, has been disrupted after Iran threatened to fire on passing vessels.
Current Oil Price Levels
Brent crude futures were trading around $93.60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate were at $91.62 as of 1857 GMT.
Market Reactions and Ongoing Risks
Rising Oil Volumes Stranded
Barclays said oil volumes stranded on tankers in the Middle East Gulf have risen by about 85 million barrels since the conflict began, adding that risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside.
Geopolitical Escalation
U.S. President Donald Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" on Friday, a dramatic escalation of his demands a week into the war he launched alongside Israel, which could make it more difficult to negotiate a swift end to hostilities.
Production Shut-ins and Further Price Scenarios
Regional Production Impacts
"Production shut-ins in Iraq and Kuwait are already happening and might spread to UAE and even Saudi Arabia over time," Barclays said.
Extreme Price Scenario
Brent Crude Could Hit $150
Barclays said the far‑end 10% scenario now implies Brent could hit $150 a barrel before the end of the month.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Porter and Chizu Nomiyama)
Key Takeaways
- •Barclays cautions Brent may reach $120/bbl if conflict in the Middle East persists for a few more weeks, noting fundamentals and risks exceed those seen in the Russia‑Ukraine crisis.
- •The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded roughly 85 million barrels on tankers, constraining flows that account for about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies.
- •A more extreme 10% tail‑risk scenario from Barclays implies Brent could surge to $150/bbl by the end of March if disruption intensifies or production shut‑ins spread.
Frequently Asked Questions about Barclays says Brent could test $120/bbl if Middle East tensions persist
1Why does Barclays believe Brent crude could reach $120 per barrel?
Barclays cites persistent Middle East conflict, supply disruptions, and heightened risks as reasons Brent crude could test $120 per barrel.
2What impact has the Strait of Hormuz conflict had on oil prices?
The conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, constraining supplies and causing oil prices to jump.
3How much have oil volumes on tankers risen since the conflict began?
Barclays reports that oil volumes stranded on tankers in the Middle East Gulf have risen by about 85 million barrels since the conflict started.
4What further risks to oil production does Barclays highlight?
Barclays notes production shut-ins in Iraq and Kuwait, warning they might spread to the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
5What is the potential upside scenario for Brent according to Barclays?
In a further escalation, Barclays suggests Brent could hit $150 per barrel before the end of the month.