Stocks fall as US bond yields rise, oil eases after latest Iran war headlines
Market Reactions to US-Iran Tensions and Economic Data
By Caroline Valetkevitch and Harry Robertson
NEW YORK/LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - A global stock index fell with 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to their highest levels since 2007 on Tuesday, and oil prices eased as investors digested the latest headlines on U.S. talks with Iran to end the war.
US-Iran Developments and Market Impact
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States may need to strike Iran again and that he had been an hour away from ordering an attack before postponing it. Trump on Monday said he had paused a planned resumption of hostilities following a new proposal by Tehran to end the U.S.-Israeli war.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the United States and Iran have made a lot of progress in their talks and neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign.
Oil Prices and Energy Markets
Oil prices settled lower on the day, with Brent futures down 82 cents at $111.28 a barrel and the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude contract for June delivery, which expired on Tuesday, down 89 cents at $107.77.
Bond Yields and Inflation Concerns
Mounting inflation fears continued to drive up U.S. Treasury yields. The 30-year Treasury bond's yield hit its highest in 19 years. It was last at around 5.18%. U.S. 10-year yields rose to their highest levels in more than a year.
Investors are closely watching rising yields, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.
"We're seeing the long end of the market continues to rise," he said. "That is the reason why we're seeing (stocks) on the defensive."
Rising yields push up borrowing costs and mean a higher discount for future company earnings, challenging stock valuations.
Key Earnings and Stock Market Performance
The all-important AI trade will be tested by earnings from chipmaker Nvidia due on Wednesday, with expectations sky-high for the world's most valuable company. Results from Walmart and other retailers are also still to come this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 322.24 points, or 0.65%, to 49,363.88, the S&P 500 fell 49.44 points, or 0.67%, to 7,353.61 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 220.02 points, or 0.84%, to 25,870.71.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 6.44 points, or 0.59%, to 1,091.79.
European Markets
European stocks were higher, however, further recovering ground lost on Friday when they dropped 1.5% as bond market jitters spread to equities.
Stocks in Europe, which is a net importer of energy and has fewer major tech firms, remain below pre-war levels and have lagged far behind their U.S. peers. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.19%.
U.S. Yields Up Again
Worries remain about a lasting inflationary shock from the Iran war, particularly from sharply higher energy prices.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 4.4 basis points to 4.667%, from 4.623% late on Monday. Yields move inversely to prices.
British bond yields fell after news reports said the most likely challenger to Prime Minister Keir Starmer will not overhaul the country's borrowing rules.
Currency Markets and Central Bank Policy
The U.S. dollar was up in part because of the higher U.S. yields, driven by inflation fears and uncertainty over how new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will respond if price pressures continue to accelerate.
Global rate hike expectations have been changing, and traders have started to price in higher probabilities for rate hikes from the Fed. Expectations have increased that policymakers will have to tighten policy to combat a resurgence in inflation driven by higher-for-longer energy prices.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,rose 0.34% to 99.33, with the euro down 0.45% at $1.1602.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.14% to 159.05.
Japan's Economic Outlook
Data on Tuesday showed that Japan's economy grew by an annualised 2.1% in the first quarter, supporting expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase in June.
Investors are also awaiting details of the government's supplementary budget plan, which could further strain Japan's already deteriorating public finances and weigh on the yen.
Commodities Update
Gold eased as the dollar firmed. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled 1% lower at $4,511.20.
(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch in New York and Harry Robertson in London, with additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Stephen Coates)
