New York Fed finds easing supply chain pressures in April

By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Supply chain pressures eased last month even as economies around the world rushed to position for the impact of massive and shifting trade tariffs by the Trump administration, the New York Federal Reserve reported on Tuesday. 

The regional Fed bank said its global supply chain pressure index stood at -0.29 in April, versus a revised -0.17 in the prior month. The reading indicated lower-than-normal supply chain pressures despite broader unsettled conditions. 

Separately, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the U.S. trade deficit surged to a record high in March, as companies boosted imports of goods expected to be targeted by President Donald Trump's import tax regime. 

The president has levied a shifting and sometimes huge level of tariffs on a range of goods, some of which have been paused, with the aim of moving more manufacturing back to the U.S. The system, as well as the erratic way it has been put in place, has stoked economic uncertainty.

Economists broadly expect the tariffs will depress growth and could trigger a recession, while boosting inflation and unemployment. Meanwhile, the 145% tariffs placed on China and Beijing's 125% retaliatory levies on U.S. goods may functionally shut down trade between the world's two largest economies. 

Given that outlook, many companies and consumers have been locking down goods before prices rise or products become harder to obtain. Analysts noted that much of the surge in the trade deficit in March was related to pharmaceuticals and not goods, so it's unclear how the new trade patterns will settle out. 

Omair Sharif, the founder and president of Inflation Insights, said "store shelves may be emptier sooner than we thought. ... Firms don't have a big cushion of extra inventory to 'hold out' while trade deals get done."  

Trump has said U.S. consumers should be ready to do with less. "I'm just saying they don't need to have 30 dolls," the president said in a television interview aired on Sunday, adding "they can have three. They don't need to have 250 pencils. They can have five."

The New York Fed's supply chain index was launched during the COVID-19 pandemic as the bank sought to track disruptions in trade caused by the health crisis. Lockdowns and illness deeply rattled the ability of the world's economy to move goods around the globe, and those disruptions were a key driver in the huge inflation surge that hit the global economy. 

Supply chain pressures peaked with the New York Fed index at 4.44 in December 2021, after which they steadily fell, bottoming in May 2023 at a reading of -1.56. They have since hovered around the zero reading that signals normal levels.

(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)