Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on September 19, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Ukrainian migration post-war could significantly impact Central Europe's economic growth, with potential effects on labor markets and GDP ranging from -6% to 3%.
WARSAW/BUDAPEST (Reuters) - Ukrainian migrant flows in and out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) after the war could prove key to the region's growth prospects, S&P Global said in a report, with possible effects on economic output ranging from -6% to 3%.
Nearly half of Ukrainian refugees currently in the EU live in the 11 CEE countries of the bloc, providing a major boost to their labour markets. The CEE-11 account for less than a quarter of the EU's total population.
"The direction of economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe could be determined by post-war Ukrainian migration, with the current boost from Ukrainian workers potentially accelerating or reversing," S&P Global said in its report.
The economic growth impact of refugee flows in the region's most exposed countries could range from -6% to 3%, it said.
As of June, the Czech Republic hosted the largest number of Ukrainians relative to its population size, at 3.5%, followed by 2.6% in Poland, the region's biggest economy, 2.5% in Estonia and 2.4% in Slovakia, S&P Global said.
The longer the war drags on, the more likely it is that post-war Ukrainian net immigration will be net-positive, it added.
"Due to Ukraine's martial law, the vast majority of migrants are women and children. In the event of a ceasefire, we expect families will re-unite in either Ukraine or a 'host-country'," the report said.
Once martial law is lifted, S&P Global said, the level of integration of women and children in a host country will be a key determinant of the direction of migration.
With the war now in its fourth year, however, some Ukrainian refugees have faced a backlash, with Poland's nationalist President Karol Nawrocki recently vetoing a bill on extending benefits provided to the 1 million refugees in the country.
The CEE-11 are Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
(Reporting by Karol Badohal and Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Gareth Jones)
Nearly half of Ukrainian refugees currently in the EU live in the 11 CEE countries, significantly boosting their labor markets.
The economic growth impact of refugee flows in the region's most exposed countries could range from -6% to 3%.
Due to Ukraine's martial law, the vast majority of migrants are women and children.
In the event of a ceasefire, families are expected to reunite in either Ukraine or their host country.
As of June, the Czech Republic hosted the largest number of Ukrainians relative to its population size, at 3.5%.
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