Kraft Heinz split may come too late to fend off growing MAHA threat

By Jessica DiNapoli

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Kraft Heinz's announcement this month that it would split was a belated acknowledgment that the Velveeta cheese and Heinz ketchup maker had missed consumers' years-long shift away from processed foods, a trend that is now accelerating under a new push from the federal government and states including California.

But, its plan to carve itself into two companies -- one focused on faster-growing sauces and condiments, one on groceries -- may not be enough to revive its brands, according to former employees, consultants and Wall Street analysts. 

The rise of the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) movement led by U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who blames artificial ingredients for chronic childhood diseases like diabetes and obesity, poses a new threat for the company that makes products including Oscar Mayer hotdogs, Kraft Singles and Jell-O desserts.

Former employees said Kraft Heinz executives missed opportunities to appeal to the new demand for fewer preservatives and artificial ingredients, such as ketchup without high-fructose corn syrup and they were also unconvinced the costly and possibly risky effort to change an iconic brand would boost sales. 

Kraft Heinz is focused on providing nutritious and affordable food, and has reduced its use of sugar, overhauled over 1,000 recipes and committed to removing synthetic dyes from its U.S. brands, a spokesperson said.

MAHA, GLPs, HIGH PRICES CHALLENGE FOOD COMPANIES

The MAHA Commission, a panel convened by President Donald Trump, released a report on Tuesday that called for the government to review chemical additives in packaged products and define ultra-processed foods. Adding to the pressure, legislators in California, the largest U.S. state by population, are voting on a bill that would regulate ultra-processed foods as soon as this month. 

Nicholas Fereday, an independent food industry analyst, said the prospects for Kraft Heinz after a split are still bleak.

"The very fact they’re splitting up doesn’t change any of it and explain how they’re going to inject energy, excitement and clarity" into the company, he said.

But its rising competition including sauce and pasta brand Rao's Homemade is adapting more quickly to consumer tastes, food industry experts said, snapping up market share from its top products like Kraft mac & cheese, known for its blue box featuring orange-hued macaroni. 

U.S. food companies have struggled to increase sales in recent years as consumers switch to products touting natural ingredients, balk at higher prices and buy less due to new appetite-suppressing GLP-1 drugs. But, Kraft Heinz has been among the worst performers, analysts have said.

Its shares are down nearly 14% year to date, while the Dow Jones U.S. food product makers index, covering its competitors, has fallen about 6.5% in the same time period. Its organic net sales have declined for the last seven quarters, according to financial statements and investor press releases.

WOULD CANE SUGAR IN HEINZ KETCHUP GROW SALES?  

Two former Kraft Heinz employees, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the press on behalf of the company, said it knew for years it was facing a seismic shift in customer preference, as offerings at natural food grocery stores like Amazon.com's Whole Foods and Sprouts rose in popularity.

But one of the employees, a marketing executive who left the company over a year ago, said "management wanted us to prove we would grow sales by changing ingredients" and was reactive to trends rather than proactive. Kraft Heinz looked at replacing high-fructose corn syrup in Heinz ketchup with cane sugar, but "it was killed due to cost,” the former exec said.

Kraft did not comment when asked about replacing high fructose corn syrup in ketchup.

Heinz ketchup's market share has slipped over the last four years, though it still holds more than two-thirds of the category in the United States, according to market research firm Euromonitor. 

The company offers a Simply Heinz ketchup without high-fructose corn syrup for a cost of nearly 50% more than the original, and in 2019 acquired condiment maker Primal Kitchen, which also pledges to avoid artificial ingredients. The company spokesperson said that the last quarter, its Simply Heinz brand grew 17% and Primal Kitchen grew 24%.

High-fructose corn syrup has become more controversial, although medical experts say people should reduce sugar intake overall, and that there is no significant health difference between the additive and cane sugar.

A May report from the MAHA commission said significant consumption of high-fructose corn syrup may contribute to chronic diseases like obesity, citing a 2021 study by researchers from Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine linking it to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. 

In response to California's bill on ultra-processed food, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said Kennedy encourages states to promote healthy practices and enhance consumer transparency in food labeling.

Other U.S. states including Missouri, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have considered passing similar laws, further adding to scrutiny of Kraft Heinz's products.

The former employees said that Kraft Heinz's moves to remove artificial ingredients from its products did little to change consumers' perception of them as unhealthy and processed.

Taking the dyes out of Kraft macaroni and cheese in 2016, for example, only stemmed some sales declines, a former brand manager said, and it is still seeing its market share fall, according to market research firm Numerator. 

Bill Johnson, CEO of H.J. Heinz until 2013, when it was taken private by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and Brazil-based 3G Capital, said companies like Kraft Heinz haven't given consumers a reason to believe their products are better than they were.

“What the big companies (like Kraft Heinz) haven’t done is innovated,” he said. 

(Reporting by Jessica DiNapoli; Editing by David Gaffen and Anna Driver)