Business
You Can’t Hope Your Way Out of Uncertainty, You Plan for It
Published by Jessica Weisman-Pitts
Posted on November 4, 2022
4 min readLast updated: February 3, 2026
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Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Jessica Weisman-Pitts
Posted on November 4, 2022
4 min readLast updated: February 3, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleBy Martin Moran, CEO of Orgvue
Recent history has seen businesses face challenge after challenge. Record inflation, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost of living crisis and economic instability caused by bad political decisions are among the major events affecting organisations globally.
Last month’s World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund predicted that 2023 will plunge business leaders and consumers into recession. It’s no surprise that we also see a significant dip in business confidence. Data from the Quarterly Economic Survey undertaken by the British Chamber of Commerce shows almost four in ten (39%) businesses believe their profitability will reduce over the next 12 months.
In such turbulent circumstances, waiting around for a silver bullet from the government may seem tempting as they vow to prioritise the economy. Yet inaction is myopic and frankly dangerous. The burden is on business leaders to take charge of their own futures by adapting their strategy for whatever comes next. How? By following these three steps.
Take charge: the power of data
Shouting “disruption” from the rooftops and using it as an excuse for poor planning and absence of agility simply won’t cut it. Disruption is now par for the course and although the very definition of ‘Black Swan events’ is something unexpected and wholly unusual, the sheer volume of these events today is causing the concept to lose meaning. The only certainty in today’s landscape is uncertainty.
So, while one of the biggest problems facing organisations is economic uncertainty, it’s something that the smartest business leaders have already anticipated, tested and planned for. How? By tapping the power of their data. Having the right information at the right time can help leaders understand in detail what’s going on in their organisation, so they can bring clarity to the impact external market forces are having on their business. It’s the actionable insight that comes from data that enables organisations to navigate uncertainty through confident, informed decision making.
Business leaders should be gathering information to model and test different scenarios, then use this insight to inform changes to operations and even business strategy. And this type of work isn’t a one-off or moment in time; it should be continuous, because data is all that leaders have to avoid impulsive decisions based on gut instinct. This way of running a business is fraught with risk in today’s climate.
Work on agility: it won’t just happen
During times of uncertainty, one of the first buzzwords to be thrown around is ‘agility’ and how ‘agile’ organisations are. Yet for the most part, saying you’re agile isn’t the same thing as working for it.
Being agile is a discipline. You have to work at it and create the environment for it to flourish. True agility can only come from a full understanding of your business and its workforce. It all starts with seeing. And seeing clearly is empowered by data.
Not just now but in general, agile businesses are better able to adapt and survive. During an economic downturn, things need to shift and change through numerous cycles. That’s a truism that agile businesses understand.
Agility means always having one eye on the long term and asking the right questions. What’s the mission? What’s critical for our workforce? If you don’t know the answers to these fundamental questions, agility is just a pipedream. Ultimately, business leaders need to know if the right work is being done by the right people at the right time and for the right cost in order to fuel agility.
Plan ahead: avoid playing catch-up
And finally, always plan ahead. As a more agile organisation, you might not be able to predict the next so-called Black Swan event, but you’ll certainly be able to adapt faster and more effectively for when it inevitably comes along.
Ditch the short-term thinking once and for all. Times have changed and acting on instinct is no longer enough. Rather than reacting under pressure, business leaders would do well to adopt a continuous approach to planning.
In practice, this means being objective and open to all eventualities, raising questions about their impact on the organisation and workforce, and coming up with different contingencies to test outcomes for the long-term. That’s what smart strategic planning looks like. Don’t wait for situations to unfold around you.
No company can afford to hunker down while chaos swirls around them. Agility bred from data and continuous planning is the only way to stay afloat in a sea of uncertainty.
Economic uncertainty refers to the unpredictability of economic conditions that can affect business operations, investments, and consumer behavior, often leading to cautious decision-making.
Business agility is the ability of an organization to rapidly adapt to market changes and respond to customer demands through flexible strategies and operations.
Strategic planning is the process of defining an organization's direction and making decisions on allocating resources to pursue this strategy over time.
Data-driven decision making involves using data analysis and interpretation to guide business decisions, ensuring that choices are based on factual evidence rather than intuition.
Risk management is the process of identifying, assessing, and prioritizing risks followed by coordinated efforts to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events.
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