Yen hits six-week high, dollar dips for month-end

By Karen Brettell and Harry Robertson

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The yen jumped to a six-week high against the dollar on Friday after faster-than-expected inflation in Tokyo supported bets for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike next month.

Tokyo’s core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.2% year-on-year in November from a year earlier, up from 1.8% last month and beating forecasts for a 2.1% gain.

“The yen is turning into the latest momentum trade … with little friction to prevent it rising in thin holiday trade,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

Trading volumes declined heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, with many traders still out on Friday.

The dollar was last down 1.04% at 149.97 yen, and earlier dipped to 149.53 yen for the first time since Oct. 21. It is set for a 2.1% weekly loss against the Japanese currency, the largest since September.

The dollar index was last down 0.04% at 106.03, after earlier reaching 105.61, the lowest since Nov. 12.

It is on track for a 2% rise in November as investors adjust for the likelihood that the new U.S. administration under Donald Trump next year will loosen business regulations and enact other policies that boost growth.

Analysts also say that proposed new tariffs and a promised clampdown on illegal immigration could reignite inflation.

Stronger-than-expected economic data has also boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest rate cuts as it approaches the neutral rate.

Traders are pricing in 66% odds for a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting, but only a 17% chance of an additional reduction in January, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The euro fell 0.05% to $1.0548. The single currency has tumbled about 3% in November as the dollar has rallied, putting it on course for its worst month since April 2022.

Data on Friday showed that French consumer prices grew in line with expectations in November. Germany’s inflation report on Thursday showed price pressures remaining flat in November despite expectations of a second consecutive increase.

ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the central bank should keep its options open for a bigger rate cut next month, countering hawkish comments from peer Isabel Schnabel the previous day.

Bitcoin climbed 3.13% to $98,111, trying to claw its way back to the record high of $99,830 from a week ago.

This month, the leading cryptocurrency is set to book a 40% jump – its best performance since February – on bets for a more favourable regulatory environment under Trump.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell and Harry Robertson; editing by Jonathan Oatis)