Finance
World Bank Expects Stronger Exports to Lift Western Balkans Growth to Average 3.1% in 2026-27
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 8, 2026
2 min readLast updated: April 8, 2026
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Quick Summary
The World Bank forecasts that economic growth in the six Western Balkan countries will strengthen, averaging 3.1% in 2026–27, supported by stronger exports, EU‑funded infrastructure projects, and public investment amid easing consumption growth.
World Bank Forecasts 3.1% Growth for Western Balkans by 2026-27 on Export Strength
World Bank Economic Outlook for the Western Balkans
Growth Projections and Key Drivers
SARAJEVO, April 8 (Reuters) - Economic growth for six Western Balkans countries is projected to increase to 3.1% on average in 2026 and 2027 on stronger exports and public investment after a slowdown last year, the World Bank said on Wednesday.
Country-Specific Growth and Investment Initiatives
Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia are forecast to collectively grow by 2.9% this year and 3.2% in 2027, with infrastructure projects funded by the European Union and other public investment expected to offset the likely moderation in consumption growth, the lender said.
Export Sectors and Consumption Trends
While robust services exports, especially tourism and information and communications technology will also fuel growth, consumption growth will cool as wage gains slow and investment weakens due to a fading tourism-led construction boom and softer foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.
Challenges: Inflation, Energy, and Poverty
The energy price shock due to the war in Iran is expected to fuel inflation, disproportionately affecting poorer households, reducing real wage growth and slowing the pace of poverty reduction, the bank said in a report.
Energy Transition and Policy Recommendations
It added the countries of the Western Balkans, which all aspire to join the EU, could use industrial policies such as a green transition to strengthen their energy security and align their energy sectors with the EU electricity integration package.
Governments of the region, where most countries remain heavily dependent on coal-fired power generation, need to actively engage in the transition, supporting economic diversification in areas where entire local economies are built around extractive and heavy industries, the bank said.
(Reporting by Daria Sito-Sucic; Editing by Toby Chopra)
Key Takeaways
- •Average growth for Western Balkans projected at 3.1% in 2026–2027, rising from 2.9% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027
- •Growth supported by robust exports—especially tourism and ICT—and public investment including EU‑backed infrastructure projects
- •Risks include cooling consumption, inflation from energy shocks, and the need for green transition to bolster energy security and EU alignment
Frequently Asked Questions about World Bank expects stronger exports to lift Western Balkans growth to average 3.1% in 2026-27
1What is the projected economic growth rate for the Western Balkans in 2026-27?
The World Bank forecasts an average growth rate of 3.1% for the Western Balkans in 2026-27.
2Which factors are expected to drive growth in the Western Balkans?
Stronger exports, especially in services like tourism and ICT, as well as public investment and EU-funded infrastructure projects are expected to drive growth.
3How will the energy price shock affect Western Balkans economies?
The energy price shock due to the war in Iran is expected to fuel inflation, affecting poorer households and slowing real wage growth and poverty reduction.
4What role does the energy transition play in the Western Balkans' economic outlook?
Adopting green transition policies and aligning energy sectors with the EU could enhance energy security and support economic diversification.
