Finance
Winners and losers from Trump's new 15% global tariff
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 23, 2026
2 min readLast updated: February 23, 2026
Quick Summary
After the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, he moved to a flat 15% global tariff. Our analysis maps likely winners and losers and flags uncertainty around UK, EU and Japan trade deals.
Who Gains and Who Pays Under Trump's Temporary 15% Global Tariff
National Emergency Basis Annulled
Legal Context: Supreme Court Ruling
Winners and Losers Under the 15% Global Tariff
Feb 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court annulment of President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs justified on national emergency grounds and Trump's subsequent move to impose a temporary 15% global tariff have thrown world trade into a new bout of confusion.
Countries Facing Lower Tariffs
For some countries - notably China and Brazil - the new 15% baseline is substantially lower than the U.S. tariffs they had been dealing with.
Impact on Bilateral Trade Deals
But for the couple of dozen countries that had sought to avoid the impact of the reciprocal tariffs by clinching bilateral deals with the United States - Britain, the European Union and Japan among them - the question now is whether those deals will stick.
Deal Validity Questions
EU and UK Positions
Both the EU and Britain have signalled a desire to retain those deals. However, some commentators argue the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, by annulling the legal basis for the reciprocal tariffs that they sought to avoid, also raises questions over whether the deals themselves will stay in place.
Chart: Comparative Tariff Effects
Below is a chart setting out potential winners and losers from the new 15% global tariff, comparing it to the level trading partners were dealing with before the court ruling.
Graphic credit: P.K. Dutta
(Graphic by P.K. Dutta; Writing by Mark John; Editing by Anil D'Silva)
Key Takeaways
- •The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s prior tariffs imposed under IEEPA, prompting a policy reset. (forbes.com)
- •Trump announced a flat 15% global tariff—upped from 10%—using Trade Act Section 122 authority, likely limited to 150 days unless extended. (washingtonpost.com)
- •Exporters such as Brazil and China could see lower effective rates versus the previous ‘reciprocal’ regime, improving competitiveness. (allianz.com)
- •Uncertainty surrounds whether bilateral deals with the UK, EU and Japan will remain intact under the new baseline. (theguardian.com)
- •Markets signaled volatility; equities dipped while haven assets rose as investors assessed sector and supply‑chain impacts. (ft.com)
Frequently Asked Questions about Winners and losers from Trump's new 15% global tariff
1What is the main topic?
Reuters reports on the fallout from a U.S. move to a flat 15% global tariff after a Supreme Court ruling, outlining potential winners and losers and the status of existing trade deals.
2Why did the U.S. shift to a 15% global tariff?
The Supreme Court annulled many tariffs imposed under emergency powers, so the administration pivoted to a uniform 15% rate under a different legal authority while it reassesses trade policy.
3Which countries could benefit most?
Countries that previously faced higher ‘reciprocal’ rates—such as Brazil and China—may see lower effective tariffs, improving export competitiveness relative to the prior regime.
