Finance
US Oil Exports Seen Rising as Wti Discount to Brent Hits Widest in 11 Years
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 18, 2026
4 min readLast updated: March 18, 2026
Quick Summary
The widening WTI–Brent discount—reaching its largest since March 2015 at about $12—has created a profitable arbitrage for U.S. crude exports despite spiking freight costs. Meanwhile, rising inventories at Cushing and SPR releases weigh on WTI, though exports are poised to climb.
US Oil Exports Expected to Surge as WTI-Brent Spread Hits 11-Year Record
Record WTI-Brent Spread Drives US Oil Export Opportunities
By Georgina McCartney and Siddharth Cavale
HOUSTON/New York, March 18 (Reuters) - The discount for U.S. crude futures versus Brent on Wednesday hit the widest in 11 years, as attacks on Middle Eastern oil infrastructure drove the global benchmark higher while rising supply in the U.S. set the stage for a jump in oil exports.
Global Market Turmoil and Arbitrage Opportunities
The U.S-Israeli war on Iran has thrown global oil markets into turmoil, driving crude and fuel prices to multi-year highs as a key trade route has mostly closed and some energy output in the Middle East is shut. The surge in Brent relative to U.S. crude futures creates an arbitrage opportunity for traders looking to fetch a profit by moving oil to higher-priced markets.
WTI Discount Reaches Historic Levels
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at as much as a $12.05 a barrel discount to Brent during the session on Wednesday, its largest since March 2015.
Freight Costs and Export Economics
Even with freight prices for an Aframax carrying up to 700,000 barrels of crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe jumping to about $6 million on Wednesday from $4.36 million before the war, the arbitrage remains open because the WTI/Brent spread is wide enough to offset the cost of freight, according to Georgios Sakellariou, chartering analyst at Signal Maritime.
"Today we saw more crude cargoes getting picked up from the U.S. Gulf Coast for loading in March to the start of April because of the widening WTI/Brent spread," Sakellariou said, adding that they expect more ballast vessels will head to the U.S. in the coming days to load crude for Europe.
Brent's Gains Outpace WTI
Brent surged by 3.8% on Wednesday after Iran threatened to hit Gulf energy targets and Iran's huge South Pars gas field was struck in an attack. WTI rose by 0.1%.
Impact of Middle East Tensions on Oil Prices
"Brent is ripping on South Pars; I think infrastructure attacks will be the main driver of more Brent rallies rather than anything else, and that tends to be reflected in Brent over WTI," said Neil Crosby, Sparta Commodities analyst.
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran's attacks on Gulf neighbors have disrupted oil and natural gas exports from the Middle East and forced production stoppages.
Export Prospects and Market Reactions
"WTI looks extremely cheap in our arbs now and will go nicely to Europe," Crosby said. "Prices today suggest the flow should be maxed," he said, adding that U.S. crude loadings for export will likely rise in the next few weeks, given the current WTI/Brent spread.
Strategic Reserves and Inventory Effects
Weighing on WTI, countries in the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of crude from reserves in an effort to tame prices, with the U.S. set to release 172 million barrels from the SPR, and that is putting pressure on WTI, said Rohit Rathod, a senior analyst at Vortexa.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery and pricing point for West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rose last week to 27.52 million barrels, their highest since August 2024, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. This build in Cushing inventory along with the SPR release is suppressing WTI, a trader said.
Export Window and Shipping Constraints
Growing demand to export crude from the U.S., which boosts freight prices, could close the arbitrage window as the shipping economics become unworkable, capping how much crude leaves the U.S.
(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston and Siddharth Cavale in New York; Editing by David Gregorio)
Key Takeaways
- •WTI traded at roughly a $12.05 per barrel discount to Brent—the widest gap since March 2015—driven by Middle East tensions elevating Brent prices while U.S. supply grows. (en.wikipedia.org)
- •Despite Aframax freight costs rising to an estimated $6 million per voyage, the WTI–Brent spread remains wide enough to sustain export arbitrage. (argusmedia.com)
- •Cushing crude inventories are climbing toward multi‑month highs while the U.S. SPR release further pressures WTI, yet soaring Brent makes U.S. exports to Europe increasingly attractive. (oilpricelive.com)
References
Frequently Asked Questions about US oil exports seen rising as WTI discount to Brent hits widest in 11 years
1Why is the WTI discount to Brent at its widest in 11 years?
Middle Eastern unrest and supply disruptions have raised Brent prices while US supply growth has pressured WTI, creating a larger discount.
2How does the WTI-Brent spread impact US oil exports?
A wider spread opens arbitrage opportunities, making it profitable to export US oil to higher-priced international markets.
3What factors are driving higher US oil exports?
Geopolitical tensions, higher Brent prices, and increased US crude production are contributing to the rise in US oil exports.
4How could increased freight costs affect US oil exports?
Rising freight costs could narrow the arbitrage window, potentially capping the volume of US crude exported if shipping becomes uneconomical.
5What recent actions have impacted US crude supply?
The US is releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and Cushing, Oklahoma inventories have risen to their highest since August 2024.
