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UK CPI TRADING GUIDE

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UK CPI TRADING GUIDE 5

The UK economy is set to release its annual consumer price index (CPI) for February in today’s London trading session. After printing a weaker than expected 1.9% reading for January, the inflation report could show a lower 1.7% increase in price levels this time.

This would mark the fifth consecutive month that the CPI reading has missed expectations. It would also mean that the annual inflation figure is far below the BOE’s (Bank of England) 2% CPI target. In this case, policymakers would be less likely to push for tightening measures as the central bank and the UK government are keen on maintaining price stability.

On its 4-hour time frame, GBP/USD is currently consolidating around the 1.6500 major psychological level. Traders are sitting tight ahead of the CPI release today, which would be crucial in setting the tone for monetary policy biases.

UK CPI TRADING GUIDE 6A stronger than expected reading might trigger a quick bounce but the rally might be short lived if the results still fall below the 2% mark. On the other hand, a weaker than expected CPI might lead to a strong downside break, as this would convince most market watchers that the BOE isn’t as close to hiking interest rates or ending asset purchases as previously believed.

A quick look at the previous reaction to the weaker than expected CPI release back in February 18 shows a quick 50-pip selloff for the GBP/USD pair down to the next visible support zone near the 1.6600 major psychological level. The drop was not sustained as risk appetite surged in the succeeding trading sessions.

If the actual CPI reading comes in stronger than expected, GBP/USD might make a rally up to the 1.6600 area of interest, as the pair is currently finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the latest swing high and low.

Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

To keep yourself updated with the latest financial news, visit the official website of Capital Trust Markets

UK CPI TRADING GUIDE 7Capital Trust Markets is an online Forex brokerage firm, headquartered in New Zealand. It was established in 2013, with an emphasis on providing the most excellent customer services in the industry. The trading environment offered to investors and traders is unparalleled – devoid of all common mistakes usually prevalent in the financial trading industry. The focused determination to provide the highest quality products, services, and support to clients and customers is what truly sets Capital Trust Markets apart from every other major brokerage firm.

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Dollar struggles as Powell stays dovish course; pound, loonie soar

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Dollar struggles as Powell stays dovish course; pound, loonie soar 8

By Kate Duguid

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar struggled on Wednesday morning as dovish testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell bolstered concerns about rising inflation, hitting multi-year lows against the pound and commodity-linked currencies including the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The Federal Reserve’s Powell reiterated on Wednesday that U.S. interest rates will remain low and the Fed will keep buying bonds to support the U.S. economy. The Fed’s commitment to low rates has some investors worried that inflation could spike on passage of further fiscal stimulus.[nS0N2JQ00R]

Powell’s remarks to the House Committee on Financial Services mirrored his testimony before the Senate on Tuesday.

The chances for higher growth – aided by easy financial conditions and the promise of fiscal stimulus – has sent money towards currencies expected to benefit from a pick-up in global trade, like those linked to commodities, and to countries like Britain that are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.

Because commodities rise with inflation, commodity-linked currencies including the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars have also benefited from the rise in inflation fears.

“The market’s focus is well ahead of where Powell is talking,” said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at Deutsche Bank.

While Powell is focused on the current state of the U.S. economy and employment, currency markets are focused more on inflation and reflation, said Ruskin.

“It is critical to make judgements on whether reflation turns into excess reflation which then turns into inflation.”

The dollar’s weakness in recent days has been more remarkable as it comes against the backdrop of a broader rise in U.S. yields. Benchmark 10-year borrowing costs are holding near their highest in nearly a year. [US/]

Against the Canadian dollar, the greenback on Wednesday hit its lowest since 2018 and was last 0.25% lower on the day at 1.256 CAD per dollar. The Australian dollar rose to a three-year high of $0.794 before paring some gains to trade 0.08% stronger at $0.792. The Kiwi rose to its highest since 2018, last up 0.69% on the day to 0.739.

The British pound climbed past $1.42 overnight for the first time since April 2018.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was at 90.378, up 0.29% on the day, but still trading within a narrow range.

Dollar struggles as Powell stays dovish course; pound, loonie soar 9

YTD FX performance https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xklpyojnepg/YTD%20FX%20performance.JPG

(Reporting by Kate Duguid in New York and Saikat Chatterjee in London; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)

 

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Sterling touches $1.42, hits highest vs euro in a year

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Sterling touches $1.42, hits highest vs euro in a year 10

By Ritvik Carvalho

LONDON (Reuters) – Sterling hit $1.42 on Wednesday, coming within touching distance of $1.43, while also reaching a year’s high against the euro as analysts retained their bullish views on the currency.

The pound is the best-performing G10 currency this year, up nearly 4% against the dollar and 3.2% against the euro as investors bet Britain’s rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout will lead to a quicker economic rebound.

Analysts also point to relief over avoiding a “no-deal” Brexit with the European Union at the end of last year as benefiting the pound, with the market looking through short-term headwinds and disruption.

“Though we had anticipated a post-Brexit deal bounce in GBP (0.88 EUR/GBP; $1.35 GBP/USD), our scepticism about the durability of the GBP recovery beyond the initial relief has been misplaced,” said BoFA Global Research’s FX strategists Kamal Sharma and Michalis Rousakis in a note to clients this week.

“Our default position for much of the past five years has been one of healthy scepticism towards Brexit and its implications and whilst the UK’s handling of the pandemic in 2020 was lacking, it is in stark contrast to the highly effective vaccine roll-out in 2021.”

This should position the UK economy for a stronger recovery in the coming quarters … and enough to provide the pound with further support heading into a strong seasonal tailwinds in April, they said.

In Asian trading hours, sterling rose to $1.4295 against the dollar, its highest since April 2020. It climbed to its highest against the euro in a year, touching 85.40 pence.

By 1600 GMT, sterling traded 0.1% lower on the day at $1.41 and 0.1% higher to the euro at 85.96.

“Seemingly GBP is benefiting from a positive vaccine rollout and short-term Brexit adjustment problems disappearing, which also from a relative rates perspective is supporting GBP,” said Lars Sparresø Merklin, senior analyst at Danske Bank.

“That said, momentum seems stretched and EUR/GBP seems oversold based on our short-term models, and hence we may see short EUR/GBP take a breather from here.”

Also supporting sterling has been a pushing back of market expectations of negative rates by the Bank of England.

Money markets point to UK interest rates remaining above zero at least until August 2022, Refinitiv data shows. They were seen turning negative as early as June 2021 four weeks ago.

(Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho; editing by Larry King)

 

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Aussie, pound soar on reflation bets; dollar struggles

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Aussie, pound soar on reflation bets; dollar struggles 11

By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar struggled at multi-year lows against the Antipodean currencies and held near a one-month low versus the euro as reflation trades gripped the currency markets on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Tuesday that U.S. interest rates will remain low and the Fed will keep buying bonds to support the U.S. economy. The dollar resumed its decline towards the lows recorded at the start of the year after a brief rally in late January.

Money flowed from safe havens like the dollar, Swiss franc and the Japanese yen towards currencies expected to benefit from a pick-up in global trade, and to countries like Britain that are recovering quickly from the coronavirus pandemic.

“The extension of weakness in safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc appears consistent with building confidence in the global economic recovery,” MUFG strategists said in a note.

Some notable moves were seen in the currency markets this week. The franc weakened below 1.10 francs per euro for the first time since the end of 2019, with a global rise in bond yields also curtailing the appeal of the safe-haven currencies.

The dollar’s weakness in recent days has been more remarkable as it comes against the backdrop of a broader rise in U.S. yields. Benchmark 10-year borrowing costs are holding near their highest in nearly a year. [US/]

The dollar’s rise in January was largely driven by investors cutting back on record-high short bets and a rise in U.S. nominal yields. The latest weakness comes amid growing confidence in a global upswing as a global vaccine rollout to combat the coronavirus pandemic accelerates.

“In periods like this, global improvements in GDP growth prospects, which is dollar-negative, are more important than the rise in US nominal yields, which is dollar-positive,” said Vasileios Gkionakis, head of FX strategy at Lombard Odier & Cie.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was at 90.111, near the six-week low of 89.941 it reached overnight.

“Risk appetite has improved a lot, and this leaves the dollar at a big disadvantage,” said Junichi Ishikawa, foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities.

The Australian dollar, which tends to benefit from rising metal and energy prices, rose to a three-year high of $0.7945 before paring gains to trade 0.1% stronger at $0.7914.

The euro bought $1.21495, close to the one-month high of $1.2180 set overnight. The British pound climbed past $1.42 overnight for the first time since April 2018.

(Reporting by Saikat Chatterjee; editing by Larry King)

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