Finance
Tsmc Likely to Book Fourth Straight Quarter of Record Profit on Insatiable AI Demand
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 13, 2026
3 min readLast updated: April 13, 2026
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TSMC is set to record a fourth consecutive quarter of record net profit for Q1 (Jan–Mar 2026), with a projected ~50% year‑on‑year surge to NT$542.6 billion (~US $17.1 billion), driven by extraordinary demand for its 3 nm AI chips and advanced packaging technologies amid capacity constraints.
TSMC Poised for Fourth Consecutive Quarterly Record Profit on AI Demand Surge
TSMC’s Record-Breaking Profits Driven by AI Chip Demand
By Wen-Yee Lee and Ben Blanchard
Surge in Net Profit and Market Capitalisation
TAIPEI, April 13 (Reuters) - TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer of advanced artificial intelligence chips, will likely notch up a fourth consecutive quarter of record earnings with a 50% surge in net profit for January-March thanks to booming demand for AI infrastructure.
Analysts say that demand for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's 3-nanometre technology to produce AI chips and its advanced packaging technology continues to outstrip the firm's current production capacity.
That's driven Asia's most valuable company, a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple, to new heights. Its market capitalisation is now nearly double that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics at around $1.6 trillion.
Expected Earnings and Analyst Forecasts
On Thursday, TSMC is expected to report a net profit of T$542.6 billion ($17.1 billion) for the quarter, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 19 analysts. SmartEstimates place greater weight on forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.
An earnings call at which it will provide second-quarter and updated full-year guidance is scheduled for 0600 GMT.
Any profit result above T$505.7 billion would mark the company's highest-ever quarterly net income and its ninth consecutive quarter of profit growth.
Last week, it posted a 35% year-on-year rise in first-quarter revenue nL6N40T0G0, ahead of market forecasts.
Future Outlook and Potential Risks
Guidance and AI Demand Projections
Looking ahead, "we expect higher quarter-on-quarter revenue growth guidance for the second quarter of 2026, driven by sustained AI demand and advanced-node leadership," Arthur Lai, head of technology research for Asia at Macquarie Capital, said in a note to clients.
Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Resilience
The war in the Middle East threatens to disrupt the supply of production materials for semiconductors such as helium and neon, but TSMC is seen as well-placed to weather the crisis.
"TSMC's diversified sourcing and safety stock should be sufficient to manage short-term disruptions," said Galen Zeng, senior research manager at IDC.
Capital Spending and Global Expansion
One area of focus will be whether TSMC maintains or raises its 2026 capital spending plans as that will reflect management's confidence in long-term AI demand, Zeng said.
TSMC is investing $165 billion to build chip factories in the U.S. state of Arizona.
The company has also revised its plans in Japan and is now set to manufacture 3-nanometre chips there, instead of focusing on more mature nodes.
Stock Performance and Market Impact
TSMC's Taipei-listed shares have gained 28% so far this year, outperforming the 22% rise for the broader market.
($1 = 31.7730 Taiwan dollars)
(Reporting by Wen-Yee Lee and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)
Key Takeaways
- •TSMC likely logs a record‑high profit (~NT$542.6 billion) in Q1 2026, marking four straight quarters of record earnings on booming AI infrastructure demand.
- •3 nm and advanced packaging capacities remain stretched to the limit—TSMC is reportedly sold out until 2028 with priority access for long‑standing major clients.
- •TSMC’s market valuation (~US $1.6 trillion) now far exceeds Samsung’s, reflecting its dominance in foundry market (about 70% share globally) and aggressive CapEx of US $52–56 billion in 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions about TSMC likely to book fourth straight quarter of record profit on insatiable AI demand
1What is driving TSMC's record profits?
Booming demand for AI infrastructure and TSMC’s advanced 3-nanometre chip technology are driving its record profits and earnings growth.
2How much net profit is TSMC expected to report for Q1?
TSMC is expected to report a net profit of T$542.6 billion ($17.1 billion) for the January-March quarter.
3How has TSMC’s stock performed in 2024?
TSMC's Taipei-listed shares have gained 28% so far this year, outperforming the market average.
4What are the risks to TSMC’s supply chain?
The war in the Middle East could disrupt supply of materials like helium and neon, but TSMC’s diversified sourcing is expected to manage short-term issues.
5Is TSMC increasing its global manufacturing capacity?
TSMC is investing $165 billion in new Arizona factories and expanding advanced chip production in Japan.