Finance
TotalEnergies Expects Sharp Rise in First-Quarter Earnings Despite Output Hit From Iran War
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 16, 2026
3 min readLast updated: April 16, 2026
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TotalEnergies forecasts a sharp rise in Q1 earnings driven by elevated upstream and trading profits amid soaring oil prices from the Iran war, despite a 15% output drop. Refining margins in Europe reached $11.40/barrel, flat from Q4 2025.
TotalEnergies says strong trading, high oil prices will boost Q1 earnings despite output hit from war
Q1 Earnings Outlook and Impact of Geopolitical Events
By America Hernandez
Strong Trading Performance and Oil Price Surge
PARIS, April 16 - TotalEnergies expects a significant increase in first-quarter earnings from a strong trading performance, as well as in its upstream production and oil sales due to higher prices caused by the war in Iran, even as the conflict shut down 15% of the French group's overall production, it said on Thursday.
Refining Margins and Upstream Production
The group's margin on refining fuel in Europe during the quarter stood at $11.40 per barrel, up 192% from $3.90 a year earlier, and flat compared to the fourth-quarter 2025 margin of $11.40, it said in an earnings outlook.
It is due to report first-quarter earnings on April 29.
Geopolitical Disruptions and Market Volatility
Benchmark Brent crude futures climbed to multi‑year highs near $120 a barrel after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, followed by Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its attacks on Gulf neighbours, which damaged liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Qatar supplying Total and Saudi Arabia's SATORP refinery co-owned by Total.
Production Adjustments and Earnings Impact
Despite losing output of about 100,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day in the Middle East, additional production in other geographies helped keep overall production flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.
That led to a significant rise in first-quarter upstream income due to oil price gains, Total said, while downstream results also increased due to refineries running above 90% and "strong performance from crude oil and petroleum product trading activities in March."
Total said strong trading around market volatility also significantly boosted its liquefied natural gas earnings.
Industry Comparison and Segment Performance
British rivals BP and Shell have said the oil price volatility caused by the war significantly boosted their trading profits.
U.S. peers Chevron and Exxon said higher prices boosted their upstream earnings, but hit their downstream business due to financial hedging transactions undertaken around cargoes that could not be delivered due to the Strait of Hormuz's closure.
Integrated Power and Marketing Results
Total's Integrated Power results are expected to be around $500 million, roughly flat compared to a year ago.
Marketing and Services will also be in line with results a year ago.
Working Capital and Share Performance
The company expects a working capital build of $5 billion for the quarter — about $2.5-3 billion of which Total attributed to the seasonality of the business, with the remainder related to the impact of oil and product price rises on Total's inventories.
Shares of TotalEnergies SE were down 0.8% at 76.04 euros at 0702 GMT, paring losses after falling as much as 3.2%.
(Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris, Editing by Louise Heavens and Kim Coghill)
Key Takeaways
- •Higher crude prices, triggered by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, are bolstering TotalEnergies’ upstream earnings and trading profits—even as 15% of its production remains offline (lemonde.fr).
- •TotalEnergies’ refining-margin indicator in Europe rose to $11.40 per barrel in Q1, up 192% year‑on‑year and unchanged from Q4 2025—highlighting strength in its downstream business (lemonde.fr).
- •Energy prices remain elevated globally, with Brent crude peaking above $100‑$126/barrel due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—supporting windfall gains but also prompting EU policymakers to consider windfall taxes (en.wikipedia.org).
References
Frequently Asked Questions about TotalEnergies expects sharp rise in first-quarter earnings despite output hit from Iran war
1Why does TotalEnergies expect higher first-quarter earnings?
Higher oil prices caused by the Iran war are expected to boost TotalEnergies' first-quarter earnings.
2How much of TotalEnergies' production was affected by the Iran war?
The conflict shut down 15% of TotalEnergies' overall production.
3What was TotalEnergies' refining margin in Europe during the quarter?
TotalEnergies' European refining margin stood at $11.40 per barrel in the first quarter.
4When will TotalEnergies report its first-quarter earnings?
TotalEnergies is due to report first-quarter earnings on April 29.
5How does the current refining margin compare to last year?
The margin increased by 192% from $3.90 per barrel a year earlier.
