Finance
Smartphone market set for biggest-ever decline in 2026 on memory price surge, IDC says
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 26, 2026
2 min readLast updated: February 26, 2026
Quick Summary
IDC says soaring memory prices will drive a record 2026 slump in smartphone shipments, hitting budget Android brands hardest as ASPs jump. Apple and Samsung are set to gain share.
IDC: Smartphone Shipments to See Record 2026 Drop as Memory Costs Soar
IDC Forecast: Record 2026 Smartphone Slump
Feb 26 (Reuters) - The global smartphone market is poised to suffer its biggest decline ever in 2026, sinking to a more than decade low in shipments, as surging memory chip prices drive up device costs, the International Data Corporation said on Thursday.
Shipments and Market Share Outlook
Smartphone shipments are expected to drop 12.9% to 1.12 billion units, the research firm said in a report.
Low-End Android Under Pressure
The decline will hit low-end Android manufacturers the hardest, while Apple and Samsung are positioned to gain market share as smaller rivals struggle or exit the market entirely, the report said.
"What we are witnessing is not a temporary squeeze, but a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain," said Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC.
Component Cost Pass-Through
Analysts have said rising component costs will erode margins at smartphone companies focused on budget devices, forcing them to pass on the expenses to consumers at a time when demand at higher price points is weakening.
Apple and Samsung Positioned to Gain
Apple and Samsung, with stronger balance sheets and premium positioning, are better equipped to weather the crisis, IDC said.
Pricing: ASPs and Margins
The average selling price of smartphones is projected to surge 14% to a record $523 this year, as manufacturers shift toward higher-margin models to offset ballooning costs.
Recovery Timeline: 2027–2028
IDC expects a modest 2% recovery in 2027 as the crisis eases, followed by a 5.2% rebound in 2028, though it said that the market was unlikely to return to previous norms.
Structural Reset of the Market
"The memory crisis will cause more than a temporary decline; it marks a structural reset of the entire market," said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC's Mobile Phone Tracker.
Sub-$100 Segment at Risk
She warned that the sub-$100 smartphone segment, representing 171 million devices, will become "permanently uneconomical" even after memory prices stabilize by mid-2027.
Bylines and Credits
(Reporting by Kritika Lamba in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)
Key Takeaways
- •IDC projects a 12.9% fall in 2026 smartphone shipments to 1.12 billion units.
- •Low-end Android makers face the steepest pressure as costs rise and margins thin.
- •Apple and Samsung are positioned to gain market share amid weaker rivals.
- •Average selling prices are seen jumping 14% to a record $523 in 2026.
- •IDC sees only a modest recovery in 2027–2028 and a structural market reset.
Frequently Asked Questions about Smartphone market set for biggest-ever decline in 2026 on memory price surge, IDC says
1What is the main topic?
IDC forecasts a record decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026 as surging memory chip prices lift device costs and pressure low-end Android manufacturers.
2Which companies are expected to benefit?
Apple and Samsung are expected to gain market share thanks to stronger balance sheets and premium positioning while smaller rivals struggle or exit.
3How will prices and volumes change?
IDC expects smartphone ASPs to rise about 14% to $523 in 2026 while shipments drop 12.9% to roughly 1.12 billion units, with only modest recovery projected from 2027.
