Finance
Ryanair Sees Jet Fuel Supply Disruption From May if Middle East War Continues
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on April 1, 2026
2 min readLast updated: April 1, 2026
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Ryanair warns that if the Middle East war continues past mid‑April, Europe could face jet fuel supply disruptions from May, potentially jeopardizing up to 25% of its fuel needs through June.
Ryanair Warns Middle East Conflict Could Disrupt Jet Fuel Supplies in Europe
Potential Impact of Middle East Conflict on European Jet Fuel Supply
Ryanair's Jet Fuel Supply Risks
LONDON, April 1 (Reuters) - Jet fuel supply to Europe could be disrupted from May if the Middle East conflict continues and potentially put 25% of Ryanair's supplies at risk through May and June, CEO Michael O'Leary told Sky News on Wednesday.
Europe's Dependence on Persian Gulf Jet Fuel
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that around 25% to 30% of Europe's jet fuel demand originates from the Persian Gulf, which it warned puts it among the most exposed regions to the impact on supply from the U.S.-Israeli war.
Possible Scenarios for Jet Fuel Supply
"If the war finishes and the Straits of Hormuz reopens by the middle or end of April, then there's no risk to supply," O'Leary said.
"If the war continues and the disruption to supply continues, we think there's a reasonable risk that some low level, maybe 10%, 20%, 25% of our supplies might be at risk through May and June."
Ryanair's Response and Ticket Price Outlook
Current Flight Operations and Fuel Security
O'Leary said the Irish airline, Europe's largest by passenger numbers, has not cut any flights because its fuel supply is currently secure but that the risk of "significantly higher" ticket prices remains through May, April, June.
Expected Airfare Increases
He told Ireland's Business Post newspaper on Sunday that he expected summer airfares to rise by more than 3% year-on-year due to a combination of capacity constraints and higher oil prices for less well hedged competitors.
Jet Fuel Hedging Strategy
The budget carrier said in January it had covered about 80% of its jet fuel requirements for the fiscal year to the end of March 2027 based on a crude oil price of $67 per barrel.
(Writing by Padraic Halpin in Dublin; editing by Sarah Young)
Key Takeaways
- •About 25–30% of Europe’s jet fuel demand comes via the Persian Gulf, exposing the region to disruption if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed (iata.org).
- •The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and incidents at Gulf refineries have already tightened jet fuel availability and driven price spikes (opis.com).
- •EU officials caution fuel prices may remain elevated even if the conflict ends quickly; Ryanair has hedged about 80% of its fuel needs to end‑March (apnews.com).
References
Frequently Asked Questions about Ryanair sees jet fuel supply disruption from May if Middle East war continues
1What risk does the Middle East conflict pose to Ryanair's jet fuel supply?
If the conflict continues, up to 25% of Ryanair's jet fuel supply in Europe could be at risk during May and June.
2How much of Europe's jet fuel comes from the Persian Gulf?
According to IATA, around 25% to 30% of Europe's jet fuel demand originates from the Persian Gulf.
3Has Ryanair cut any flights due to fuel supply concerns?
Ryanair has not cut any flights yet, as its fuel supply is currently secure.
4How might ticket prices be affected if the fuel supply is disrupted?
Ticket prices could rise significantly if the disruption continues, especially through May and June.
5How much jet fuel has Ryanair hedged for the coming years?
Ryanair has hedged about 80% of its jet fuel requirements for the fiscal year through March 2027 at $67 per barrel.
