Finance
Russia's March Oil and Gas Revenues Expected to Fall 52% Year-On-Year
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 17, 2026
2 min readLast updated: March 17, 2026
Quick Summary
Russia's March oil and gas tax revenues are projected to fall 52% year‑on‑year to 520 billion roubles, with Q1 revenues also down sharply. The decline stems from past weak oil prices and a strong rouble, despite recent surges in global oil due to the Iran conflict—not yet reflected in calculations.
Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues Projected to Drop 52% in March 2026
Analysis of Russia's Oil and Gas Revenue Trends
March 2026 Revenue Forecast
March 17 (Reuters) - Russia's federal budget proceeds from taxes on oil and gas are expected to drop by 52% in March to 520 billion roubles ($6.4 billion) from the same month in 2025 due to weaker oil prices and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Tuesday.
Impact of Global Oil Prices and Geopolitical Events
Effect of U.S.-Israeli War on Iran
The rise in international oil prices resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is yet to be felt for Russia as current budget revenues are calculated based on the previous month. Global oil prices are up around 40% since the start of the conflict on February 28.
Significance of Oil and Gas Revenue for Russia
Oil and gas revenue accounts for around a quarter of Russia's federal budget proceeds and are critical to funding Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine.
Quarterly and Annual Revenue Comparisons
January-to-March Revenue Figures
Russia's oil and gas revenues over the January-to-March period are expected to total 1.34 trillion roubles, down from 2.64 trillion roubles in the first three months of 2025.
Calculation Methodology
Reuters calculations are based on oil and gas production data, refining, and supplies on domestic and international markets.
Official Data and Budget Projections
Upcoming Finance Ministry Report
The finance ministry will publish its data on the budget's oil and gas revenues on April 3.
Federal Budget Assumptions for 2026
The federal budget assumes the collection of 8.918 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales this year. Total budget revenues for 2026 are seen at 40.283 trillion roubles.
Historical Context
Last year, Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas dropped 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles, the lowest level since 2020.
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Joe Bavier)
Key Takeaways
- •March oil and gas tax revenues are expected at 520 billion roubles, down 52% from March 2025, due to lower prices and a stronger rouble.
- •Q1 (Jan–Mar) oil and gas revenues forecast at 1.34 trillion roubles, nearly half of Q1 2025’s 2.64 trillion.
- •Recent global oil price spikes driven by the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption (up ~40%) will only impact future revenue months.
- •In January–February, revenues were already down 47% year‑on‑year, highlighting dire fiscal pressure. Russia’s 2025 oil and gas receipts hit five‑year lows at 8.48 trillion roubles.
Frequently Asked Questions about Russia's March oil and gas revenues expected to fall 52% year-on-year
1Why are Russia's oil and gas revenues expected to fall in March 2026?
Revenues are forecasted to drop due to weaker oil prices and a stronger rouble.
2How much are Russia’s oil and gas revenues projected to decline year-on-year?
They are expected to fall by 52% in March compared to the same month in 2025.
3What impact does oil and gas revenue have on Russia's federal budget?
Oil and gas revenue accounts for around a quarter of the federal budget and is critical to funding government activities.
4When will the finance ministry publish official oil and gas revenue data?
The finance ministry will publish data on April 3.
5How have global oil prices changed due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran?
Global oil prices have risen by around 40% since the start of the conflict on February 28.
