Russian Central Bank Says Export Outlook to Worsen in First Quarter

Russian Central Bank Predicts Tougher Export Conditions in Q1 2026

Export Outlook and Economic Implications

MOSCOW, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The outlook for Russian exports will be more challenging in the first quarter of 2026 than last year, with negative consequences for the federal budget, First Deputy Central Bank Governor Alexei Zabotkin said on Wednesday.

Impact on Federal Budget

Russia's budget deficit could swell to nearly three times the official target by the end of 2026 as falling Indian purchases of Russian oil and widening trade discounts erode revenues, a source close to the government earlier told Reuters.

Trade Relations with India

"The situation for our exports continues to be challenging. It is probably more difficult in the first quarter of this year than it was in the fourth quarter of last year or the third quarter of last year," Zabotkin told RBC radio.

Energy Sector Revenue Decline

He added that the weaker export environment would have a pro-inflationary effect, though he did not specifically mention India.

On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India to cut tariffs to 18% from 50% in exchange for New Delhi halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers.

India's Russian oil imports slipped in January, continuing a downturn that began in December.

Government data released on Wednesday showed that budget revenues from the energy sector halved in January to 393.3 billion roubles ($5.12 billion), their lowest level since July 2020.

($1 = 76.7500 roubles)

(Reporting Elena Fabrichnaya; Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Ros Russell)