Portugal's Quarterly GDP Growth Stalls after Storms Impact Exports and Forecasts
Economic Performance and Contributing Factors
Quarterly GDP Stagnation and Causes
LISBON, April 30 (Reuters) - Portugal's economy stagnated in the first quarter compared to the previous three-month period, when it expanded 0.9%, official data showed on Thursday, after severe storms and floods in January and February hit the export-heavy central region.
Impact of External and Domestic Demand
The National Statistics Institute (INE) said in a statement that the contribution of net external demand to the quarter-on-quarter growth turned negative as imports grew more strongly than exports.
By contrast, the contribution of domestic demand turned positive, with a "marked acceleration in investment", benefiting from EU funds, even as private consumption slowed.
Year-on-Year GDP Growth and Economic Resilience
INE said in its flash estimate that gross domestic product still rose 2.3% in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier. In the fourth quarter, GDP grew 1.9% year-on-year.
Expert Analysis and Future Outlook
Paulo Rosa, senior economist at Banco Carregosa, said the data showed that although Portugal's economy remains resilient compared with a year earlier, reflecting the positive momentum of 2025, "it lost momentum at the start of 2026, pointing to a slowdown" due to the storms and energy price hikes amid the Iran war.
Revised Growth Forecasts
In March, the Bank of Portugal revised down its 2026 growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.3% in December, a projection the government has so far maintained. The economy grew by 1.9% last year.
Rosa sees the economy growing 1.8% to 1.9% this year.
(Reporting by Sergio Goncalves; editing by Andrei Khalip and Ros Russell)
