Finance
PayPal flags smaller basket sizes, cautious shoppers amid macro uncertainty
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on October 28, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on October 28, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 21, 2026
PayPal reports a decline in consumer spending due to economic concerns, with smaller basket sizes and selective shopping behavior.
By Manya Saini
(Reuters) -PayPal saw a slowdown in payments activity in September that continued into October across both the U.S. and Europe, as consumers became more selective in their purchases, CFO Jamie Miller told analysts on a call.
Shares of the company, which had initially jumped 17% after PayPal announced a partnership with OpenAI and reported blowout results, pared some gains during the conference call as investors digested Miller's comments. The stock was last up 10%.
U.S. companies across industries are feeling the squeeze from a widening gap between lower-income and affluent consumers, with tariffs adding further uncertainty, as seen in third-quarter earnings reported so far.
"We're seeing basket sizes just trade down. Average order value being down, particularly in retail where you know consumers are just being more selective, and that behavior has continued into October," Miller said.
The shift, echoed by major retailers and consumer goods companies, points to a slowdown in discretionary purchases, even as everyday spending remains steady, leaving the payments sector largely on firm footing.
PayPal forecast current-quarter adjusted EPS between $1.23 and $1.27, below Street expectations of $1.31 according to estimates compiled by LSEG.
"Worries over a weaker jobs market in the U.S., signs of financial strain among lower-income families and the slower-than-hoped rate of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve have all added a cyclical element to more structural concerns," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
However, the year-end holiday season, typically a strong period for retailers and payment firms, could help lift spending in the next couple of months.
Retailers typically rely on the fourth-quarter holiday season for a large portion of annual sales, with spending during Christmas, Black Friday and Thanksgiving helping boost purchases.
"The holiday season is very back-end loaded. So it's something we're watching," Miller added.
(Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)
Average order value (AOV) refers to the average amount of money each customer spends per transaction. It is a key metric for businesses to understand consumer spending behavior.
Discretionary purchases are non-essential items that consumers buy when they have extra money. These purchases can be affected by economic conditions and consumer confidence.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) is a financial metric that indicates the profitability of a company. It is calculated by dividing net earnings by the number of outstanding shares.
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