Opec+ Debates Theoretical Oil Output Hike Amid Iran War Paralysis, Sources Say

OPEC+ agrees to boost oil output when Strait of Hormuz reopens

OPEC+ Decision and Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure

By Olesya Astakhova, Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar

OPEC+ Output Increase and Current Limitations

MOSCOW/LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a modest rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most important oil route - since the end of February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq, the only countries in the group which were able to significantly raise production even before the conflict began. 

Market Reaction and Price Surge

Crude prices have surged to a four-year high close to $120 a barrel, translating into soaring prices for transport fuels which are pressuring consumers and businesses across the globe, and triggering government action to conserve supplies.

Significance of the Quota Increase

The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 bpd represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens, OPEC+ sources have said. Consultancy Energy Aspects called the increase "academic" as long as disruptions in the strait persist.

Expert Commentary

"In reality it adds very few barrels to the market,” said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official who now works as head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

"When the Strait of Hormuz is closed additional barrels from OPEC+ become largely irrelevant.”

OPEC+ Concerns and Operational Challenges

Security Threats and Infrastructure Damage

OPEC+ CONCERNED ABOUT ATTACKS ON ENERGY ASSETS

Eight members of OPEC+ agreed to the increase in May quotas at a virtual meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ said in a statement.

Besides the disruptions affecting Gulf members, others such as Russia are unable to increase output  - in Moscow's case due to Western sanctions and damage to infrastructure inflicted during the war with Ukraine. 

Inside the Gulf, damage to infrastructure from missile and drone attacks has also been severe. Several Gulf officials have said it would take months to resume normal operations and reach production targets even if the war stopped and Hormuz reopened immediately.

OPEC+ Monitoring and Regional Developments

A separate OPEC+ panel that also met on Sunday, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, expressed concern about attacks on energy assets, saying they were expensive and time-consuming to repair and so have an impact on supply, OPEC+ said in a statement.

Iran said on Saturday Iraq was exempt from any restrictions to transit Hormuz, and shipping data on Sunday showed a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the strait. Still, it remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved, a source close to the issue said.

Global Oil Supply Disruption and Future Outlook

Scale of the Disruption

WAR CAUSES WORLD'S WORST OIL SUPPLY DISRUPTION

May's OPEC+ increase is the same as the eight members had agreed for April at their last  meeting held on March 1, just as the war began to disrupt oil flows.

A month later, the largest oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as many as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15% of global supply.

Price Forecasts and OPEC+ Strategy

Oil prices could spike above $150 - an all-time high - if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May, JPMorgan said on Thursday. 

OPEC+ groups 22 members including Iran. In recent years only the eight countries meeting on Sunday have been involved in monthly production decisions, and they started in 2025 to unwind previously agreed output cuts to regain market share.

Production Quotas and Upcoming Meetings

The eight raised production quotas by about 2.9 million bpd from April 2025 through December 2025, before pausing increases for January to March 2026.

The eight hold their next meeting on May 3.

(Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, Olesya Astakhova, Dmitry Zhdannikov; Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)