Finance
Oil Prices to Rise Further on Monday as Mideast War Escalates
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 22, 2026
3 min readLast updated: March 22, 2026
Quick Summary
Oil prices are poised to climb further on Monday following last week’s surge to nearly four‑year highs, fueled by escalating U.S.‑Iran tensions—most notably President Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iranian energy infrastructure and Iran’s retaliatory warnings.
Oil Prices Likely to Surge Further Monday Amid Escalating Middle East War
Escalating Tensions and Impact on Oil Markets
Rising Oil Prices and Market Reactions
LONDON/SINGAPORE, March 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices look set to rise further on Monday, having closed before the weekend at their highest in nearly four years, after U.S. and Iranian threats to target energy facilities, analysts said on Sunday.
On Friday, Brent futures for May settled up 3.26% at $112.19 a barrel, the highest since July 2022.
Brent gained about 8.8% last week, while the front-month WTI settled down around 0.4% compared with last Friday's close. WTI's discount to Brent hit its widest in 11 years on Wednesday.
Analyst Insights on Market Uncertainty
"President Trump's threat has now placed a 48-hour ticking time bomb of elevated uncertainty over markets," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. If the ultimatum is not walked back, oil prices will spike on Monday, he said.
"It clearly means more escalation which means higher oil prices. Some are incorrectly thinking, however, that Iran may cave," said Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects. "Trump is trying to show he can out-escalate and that way ends in scorched earth for Gulf infrastructure."
Geopolitical Developments in the Middle East
U.S. and Iranian Threats
U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, a significant escalation barely a day after he talked about "winding down" the war, now in its fourth week.
Iran warned on Sunday it would attack U.S.-linked infrastructure, including energy and desalination facilities in the Gulf, if Trump carried out his threat.
Impact on Regional Infrastructure
Iran has attacked ports and refineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar in retaliation for attacks on its infrastructure. The closure of Hormuz resulted in a loss of a full four days of global supply - or some 440 million barrels - during the 22 days of the war so far.
Tehran has so far refrained from attacking large desalination plants in Saudi and the UAE, which are responsible for the water supply for millions of people.
Potential Humanitarian and Economic Consequences
Large scale damage to those facilities could make some cities in the Gulf uninhabitable within weeks and force mass evacuations and cascading power failures, according to the Atlantic Council.
Outlook and Strategic Responses
Restoration of Oil Supplies
Restoring supplies from the Middle East Gulf could take up to six months, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times on Friday.
Possible U.S. Actions
The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported on Friday.
(Reporting by Florence Tan and Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Christina Fincher)
Key Takeaways
- •Oil prices hit multi‑year highs ahead of Monday trade amid intensified U.S.‑Iran conflict, notably threats over the Strait of Hormuz.
- •The closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz—through which ~20% of global oil flows—continues to drive a steep risk premium, potentially pushing Brent above $120.
- •U.S. gasoline prices have surged to levels unseen since 2023, reflecting the broader economic strain from Middle East supply disruptions.
Frequently Asked Questions about Oil prices to rise further on Monday as Mideast war escalates
1Why are oil prices expected to rise on Monday?
Oil prices are expected to rise due to escalating conflict between the US and Iran threatening key energy facilities in the Middle East.
2What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz in this situation?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply; its closure disrupts millions of barrels per day, impacting prices worldwide.
3How much did Brent crude futures increase last week?
Brent futures rose about 8.8% last week, settling at $112.19 a barrel on Friday, the highest since July 2022.
4What actions are being threatened by the US and Iran?
The US threatened to target Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, while Iran warned of attacks on U.S.-linked infrastructure in the Gulf.
5How long could it take to restore Gulf oil supplies?
Restoring supplies from the Middle East Gulf could take up to six months, according to the International Energy Agency.
