Finance
OPEC data indicate close oil supply-demand balance in 2026, no glut
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on December 11, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 20, 2026
Global Banking and Finance Review
Company
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on December 11, 2025
2 min readLast updated: January 20, 2026
OPEC forecasts a balanced oil supply-demand in 2026, contrasting with IEA's oversupply prediction. OPEC+ plans to pause production hikes.
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - World oil supply will match demand closely in 2026, OPEC data published on Thursday indicated, an outlook contrasting with projections from the International Energy Agency and others of a huge glut.
The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026, amid widespread predictions of oversupply.
In a monthly report on Thursday, OPEC said that OPEC+ pumped 43.06 million barrels per day of crude in November, up 43,000 bpd from the previous month, as the latest output hike agreement took effect.
The report forecast demand for OPEC+ crude will average 43 million bpd in 2026, unchanged from last month and close to what OPEC+ produced in November. OPEC forecast demand for its crude at 42.6 million bpd in the first quarter.
Should OPEC+ keep pumping at November's rate in 2026 and other things remain equal, production would be 60,000 bpd higher than demand, according to a Reuters calculation based on the OPEC report.
This contrasts with the view of the IEA, which earlier on Thursday implied global oil supply will exceed demand by almost 3.84 million bpd - an amount equal to almost 4% of world demand - next year.
In its report, OPEC also kept its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 world oil demand growth unchanged and said the world economy remained on a solid footing.
(Editing by Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan)
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a group of oil-producing countries that coordinates and unifies petroleum policies among member countries to ensure stable oil prices.
Crude oil production is the extraction of crude oil from the earth, which is then refined into various petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and other fuels.
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