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Norway government trims 2026 non-oil GDP forecast

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on March 9, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: April 1, 2026

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Norway government trims 2026 non-oil GDP forecast
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OSLO, March 9 (Reuters) - Norway's Labour Party government said on Monday it had cut its economic growth projections for 2026, as it began work on making a fiscal budget for next year. The government

Norway Government Revises 2026 Non-Oil GDP Growth Forecast to 1.8 Percent

Norwegian Government Updates Economic Outlook Amid Global Uncertainty

Revised Growth Projections for 2026 and 2027

OSLO, March 9 (Reuters) - Norway's Labour Party government said on Monday it had cut its economic growth projections for 2026, as it began work on making a fiscal budget for next year.

The government predicted non-oil GDP, a key indicator of economic activity, will increase by 1.8% in 2026 against a forecast of 2.1% made in October, while growth for 2027 was raised to 1.9% from 1.8% seen previously.

Factors Influencing the Economic Forecast

Impact of Global Events on Norwegian Economy

The war in the Middle East increases the uncertainty in the international economy and could negatively affect Norway even if the price of oil and gas, the country's main exports, are rising, Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg said.

"The impact on the Norwegian economy depends on how long and extensive the war is, but reduced global growth will affect Norwegian exports," Stoltenberg told a press conference.

Oil, Gas Prices, and the Sovereign Wealth Fund

"Higher oil and gas prices will provide increased income for Norway, while a potential downturn in the international financial markets will reduce the value of the sovereign wealth fund," he said.

Next Steps in Fiscal Planning

The minority government will present its 2027 spending plan in October.

(Reporting by Terje Solsvik, editing by Stine Jacobsen)

Key Takeaways

  • Non‑oil GDP growth forecast trimmed to 1.8% for 2026, down from 2.1% in October 2025 forecast
  • Growth projection for 2027 modestly raised to 1.9%, reflecting cautious optimism
  • Middle East war increases global uncertainty—higher energy revenues help but could lower sovereign wealth fund value via market volatility

References

Frequently Asked Questions

How might the war in the Middle East affect Norway's economy?
It could negatively impact Norway through reduced global growth, which would hurt Norwegian exports, despite higher oil and gas prices.
When will Norway present its 2027 fiscal budget?
The minority government will present its 2027 spending plan in October.
How are oil and gas prices affecting Norway's economic outlook?
Higher oil and gas prices are expected to increase income, but a downturn in financial markets could lower the value of Norway's sovereign wealth fund.

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