Finance
Morning Bid: Deal, or No Deal?
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 25, 2026
3 min readLast updated: March 25, 2026
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Oil dips and Asian stocks tick up on Trump’s unconfirmed Iran deal claims; investors tread cautiously amid fragile euro‑zone growth and geopolitical risks. Cash hoarding continues with U.S. money-market funds surging to new highs.
How US-Iran Negotiations Are Affecting Global Markets, Oil, and Currencies
Impact of US-Iran Negotiations on Financial Markets
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
US-Iran Negotiation Developments
"We're in negotiations right now," U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House, boasting that the Iranians had made a concession "worth a tremendous amount of money", about which he gave no further details.
"It was a very nice thing they did," he said.
The assertion is unconfirmed by Iran and in fact Iran's official news agency quoted an armed forces spokesperson saying the U.S. is "negotiating with itself". But the tone has sent oil lower and stocks higher in the Asia session, though not by massive margins.
Regional Tensions and Diplomatic Efforts
Israel, meanwhile, struck Tehran on Wednesday, which semi-official Iranian reports said hit a residential area, and Iran has denied it is in direct talks to end or pause hostilities.
The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Washington sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war. Israel's Channel 12, quoting three sources, said the U.S. was seeking a month-long ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan.
A source familiar with the matter confirmed that the U.S. had sent a plan to Iran but provided no further details.
Market Reactions and Economic Implications
Markets are hesitating to run too far for a few reasons, one being the risk negotiations are either not substantive or go nowhere and the other that economic damage deepens by the day.
Euro Zone and Asian Market Response
Euro zone private sector growth has nearly stalled this month as inflation expectations surged and delivery times soared, adding to evidence that the bloc is already suffering a tangible drag from the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran.
Asian currencies have been under pressure in anticipation of hits to the region's energy-importing economies being lasting as Mideast oil and gas infrastructure has sustained damage.
Currency and Pension Fund Strategies
South Korea's National Pension Service will work to raise its strategic hedging ratio over the long term to help stabilise the fragile won, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing sources aware of the fund's discussions with the government and the central bank.
Safe Havens and Investment Trends
Gold made some recovery with the mood but remains on course for its largest monthly fall since 2008 and an example of how few places investors have had to hide since the war began.
A traditional safe haven, it has been knocked by profit-taking from a rocketing two-year rally.
Cash and Money Market Flows
The one thing powering along is cash. U.S. money market funds have grown by around $60 billion since February 28 to a new record of $7.86 trillion.
Key Events to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
News: Mideast headlines
Economics: British CPI, German IFO, European consumer confidence
Earnings: Carnival Corp
(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
Key Takeaways
- •Trump’s remarks of a ‘tremendous money’ concession from Iran remain unconfirmed, dampening conviction across markets.
- •Euro‑zone PMI shows nearly flat private sector growth in February, with inflation pressures persisting; Asia’s export‑dependent currencies under strain.
- •U.S. money‑market funds hit an all‑time high of around $7.8 trillion, underscoring strong investor preference for liquidity amid uncertainty.
Frequently Asked Questions about Morning Bid: Deal, or no deal?
1How have US-Iran negotiations affected global markets?
US-Iran negotiations have led to lower oil prices and higher stocks in Asia, with ongoing uncertainty influencing investor sentiment.
2What impact have recent conflicts had on Asian currencies?
Asian currencies are under pressure due to concerns about lasting effects on energy-importing economies from Mideast oil and gas infrastructure damage.
3What is the status of the Euro zone's economic growth?
Euro zone private sector growth has nearly stalled this month, affected by inflation expectations and longer delivery times related to ongoing conflicts.
4Why is gold not performing as a safe haven during this period?
Despite its traditional safe haven status, gold is facing a significant monthly fall due to profit-taking after a long rally and limited investor refuge options.
5How are US money market funds responding to current events?
US money market funds have grown by about $60 billion since February 28, reaching a record $7.86 trillion, as investors seek safety in cash.
