Italy’s economy stagnates in Q3, pointing to weak 2024

ROME (Reuters) – Italy’s economy stagnated in the third quarter from the previous three months due to a slump in exports and investments, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Monday, confirming provisional data.

On a year-on-year basis, third quarter gross domestic product was up 0.4%, also confirming ISTAT’s flash estimate on Oct. 30.

The breakdown of GDP components in the euro zone’s third largest economy showed firm consumer spending offset by the sharp quarterly declines in exports and investments.

Giorgia Meloni’s government is officially forecasting full-year 2024 growth of 1%, but most analysts consider this unrealistic.

ISTAT said on Monday that if growth stagnates again in the fourth quarter, full-year expansion will come in at just 0.5%.

Recent economic data in Italy has been largely weak, with consumer and business confidence declining and the manufacturing sector contracting in November at its fastest rate this year.

The labour market, however, remains relatively buoyant, with the jobless rate falling in October to its lowest since 2007.

ISTAT said consumer spending in the third quarter was up 1.4% from the previous three months, imports increased 1.2%, while exports contracted by 0.9% and investments were down 1.2%.

Inventory accumulation contributed a positive 0.2 percentage points to the quarter-on-quarter GDP figure.

The second quarter was confirmed to have posted a 0.2% rise quarter-on-quarter, while the year-on-year rate was revised up to 0.7% from a previously reported 0.6%.

(Reporting By Gavin Jones, graphic by Stefano Bernabei)