Iran widens war on shipping, trump talks strait

Iran Widens Shipping War, Oil Prices Rise, Markets React to Gulf Tensions

Market Impact and Global Reactions

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu

Escalation in the Gulf and Oil Market Response

It takes one to start a war, but two to make peace. President Donald Trump may be talking about a war already won, but someone forgot to send Iran the memo as Tehran steps up attacks on ships in the Gulf waters, warning the world of oil prices at $200 a barrel.

International Energy Agency's Release and Investor Sentiment

Oil's reaction to a record release plan from the International Energy Agency is telling. 400 million barrels is only around 20 days of the supply that has been lost, so clearly investors are more worried about the prospect of a lengthy blow to supply than what Trump says.

Attacks on Tankers and Regional Disruptions

Two fuel tankers are burning in Iraqi waters after being attacked by Iran's explosive-laden boats, forcing the country's oil ports to halt operations. Oman has reportedly cleared all vessels out of its main oil export terminal, taking no chances.

Oil Price Surge

That was enough to send Brent crude futures back above $100, up nearly 9% at $100.07, having hit as high as $119.5 earlier this week. U.S. crude also gained 8% to $94.25.

Political Reactions

When asked about the war, Trump said the U.S. was "going to look very strongly at the straits."

Financial Markets and Inflation Concerns

Stock Market Declines

Share markets did not take it well. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.6% to snap two days of consecutive gains. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.7%.

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures fell 1%. Over in Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 1.1%.

Inflationary Pressures and Central Bank Responses

All of that will be inflationary, prompting bond markets to raise borrowing costs worldwide. Forget about rate cuts. Of the five central banks meeting next week in the United States, Europe, Britain, Australia and Canada, traders bet none will be easing and one - Australia - will be hiking.

Bond Market Movements

Two-year U.S. Treasury yields hit the highest since August, while the 10-year was still suffering from a poor auction. All eyes are now on the auction of 30-year bonds later today. After all, who would want to lock in yields now, when inflation is threatening to eat your future returns?

Key Events to Watch

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

• 30-year US bond auctions
• US trade data for January, initial jobless claims
• Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaking

(Editing by Sam Holmes)