Finance
Hungary's opposition Tisza party widens its lead ahead of Orban's Fidesz
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 25, 2026
3 min readLast updated: February 25, 2026
Quick Summary
Medián’s latest poll shows Tisza leading Fidesz 55–35 among decided voters and 42–31 among all adults. With Mi Hazank above 5%, the April 12 election could reshape Hungary’s politics. (telex.hu)
Hungary’s Tisza Party Extends Lead Over Orban’s Ruling Fidesz
Polling Snapshot and Electoral Context
BUDAPEST, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Hungary's centre-right opposition Tisza party has widened its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz in February, a highly regarded poll showed on Wednesday, ahead of an April 12 election in which the veteran nationalist is seeking reelection.
Orban, seeking to retain his 16-year grip on power, is facing a strong challenger for the first time in a parliamentary vote, with the outcome having major implications not only for Hungary but for Europe and its far-right political forces.
The poll showed Fidesz losing ground, while Tisza is gaining supporters, despite numerous voter-pleasing measures announced by the government after three years of economic stagnation.
Lead Among Decided Voters
Tisza, led by former government insider Peter Magyar, has extended its lead over Fidesz to 20 percentage points among decided voters, up from a 12-point lead in a January survey, pollster Median said in an article published by news website hvg.hu.
Magyar's party, which was only launched in 2024, had the support of 55% of decided voters, up from 51% in January.
Fieldwork: Feb 18–23, 2026
Survey Fieldwork and Dates
Support for Fidesz dropped to 35% from 39% a month ago, according to the survey conducted between February 18 and 23.
Support in the Full Electorate
When looking at the entire population, the survey said that Tisza was supported by 42% while Fidesz was backed by 31%.
Median researchers said Tisza "has made up for its loss of momentum in the autumn and is once again leading Fidesz with a confidence similar to that of last summer."
Smaller Parties Near Threshold
Apart from the two main parties, only the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) party has a chance of getting into parliament, with the support of 6% of decided voters, up from 5% in January, Median said. Parties must win at least 5% to get seats.
Pollster Track Record
The Median poll has one of the strongest track records of accurate forecasts in Hungary. It correctly predicted Orban's landslide victory in the last election four years ago, though slightly overstating opposition support.
Competing Poll Narratives
While most polls have shown a Tisza lead, Fidesz points to surveys that still show it on course to victory, though its opponents say these have mainly been conducted by institutes with financial or personal ties to the ruling party.
Orban’s Constituency Forecast
Orban said last week at a campaign stop in Sumeg that surveys show that Fidesz could win in 65-70 of Hungary's 106 individual constituencies, down from 87 four years ago, but still enough to retain power.
Hungary’s Parliamentary Math
Hungary's parliament has 199 members, 93 elected from party lists and 106 elected directly from constituencies.
(Reporting by Anita Komuves)
Key Takeaways
- •Medián’s new survey shows Tisza ahead of Fidesz 55–35 among decided voters, widening its advantage from January. (telex.hu)
- •Among the full population, support stands at 42% for Tisza versus 31% for Fidesz, indicating broader momentum. (telex.hu)
- •Far-right Mi Hazank is at 6% among decided voters, clearing the 5% parliamentary threshold. (telex.hu)
- •Hungary’s parliamentary election is set for April 12, 2026, heightening market and EU policy stakes. (apnews.com)
- •Other polls remain mixed, showing a competitive race and uncertainty ahead of the vote. (euronews.com)
Frequently Asked Questions about Hungary's opposition Tisza party widens its lead ahead of Orban's Fidesz
1What is the main topic?
A new Medián poll shows Hungary’s opposition Tisza party expanding its lead over Viktor Orban’s Fidesz ahead of the April 12, 2026 parliamentary election.
2How large is Tisza’s lead?
Among decided voters, Tisza leads Fidesz 55–35. Across the entire population, support is about 42% for Tisza versus 31% for Fidesz, indicating wider momentum.
3Which smaller parties could enter parliament?
Mi Hazank is polling around or above 5% among decided voters, placing it near the threshold required to gain seats under Hungary’s mixed electoral system.
