Greens, Reform UK threaten Labour bastion in Manchester by-election

GORTON, England, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Support for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party is evaporating in one of its Manchester strongholds, where the Green Party or right-wing Reform UK could rupture decades of political tradition in an election later this month.

Voters in the Gorton and Denton constituency, named after two towns in east Manchester, in northwest England, are due to elect a new member of parliament in a one-off by-election on Thursday.

Now merged into a single seat, both have returned Labour politicians to Westminster for generations - Gorton for almost 100 years, and Denton since World War Two.

Labour won the seat easily in Starmer's landslide election victory in July 2024, polling just over 50% of the vote, but the current MP Andrew Gwynne said last month he would step down.

The contest to replace him is shaping up to be brutal for the government.

STARMER'S RECORD IN FOCUS

Voter Shifts: Greens vs Reform

Labour is losing ground in two directions: to the Greens among younger, diverse voters in Manchester's inner suburbs to the west of the constituency, and to Reform among older, white working-class communities in Denton, to the east.

Local Economic Deprivation Context

The seat includes some of the most deprived areas in Manchester, which vies with Birmingham, in central England, as Britain's second city.

"I've always been a staunch Labour voter," retired firefighter Dave Ward, 59, said in Denton. "But now I'm giving Reform a chance. Labour have let us down. They've made promises after promises. U-turn after U-turn."

The area's three-way split crystallises everything that has gone wrong for Starmer: policy U-turns, plummeting popularity, and now widespread disgust over allegations that Peter Mandelson, his handpicked U.S. ambassador, had previously leaked government information to late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson denies wrongdoing.

Polling and Bookmaker Signals

An opinion poll published by market research firm Omnisis on Friday put the Greens narrowly ahead of Reform, with Labour close behind, matching indications from bookmakers.

Market Impact and Investor Concerns

Investors are watching too - British government bonds have wobbled this year during moments of uncertainty about Starmer's political future. Many bond investors worry a change of Labour leader would shift policies to the left and raise borrowing.

Gilt Yields and Volatility

GREENS TARGET LABOUR VOTERS

Some left-leaning voters who hoped Labour would deliver more radical change after 14 years of Conservative rule have instead turned to the Green Party under new leader Zack Polanski.

In Levenshulme, an area with a large Muslim population, Green Party posters festoon many houses.

"I'll be voting Green this time around," said Josie, a 37-year-old teacher who declined to give her last name.

"I'm a former Labour member, but... I don't think they can win round here anymore," she added, citing her disagreement with Starmer's stance on the war in Gaza and Mandelson.

Labour may have sealed its fate by blocking popular Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing.

Officials said it avoided triggering an expensive mayoral election, but critics saw it as an attempt to keep a potential rival out of parliament.

Sue Ashton, a 75-year-old lifelong Labour voter in Gorton, said Starmer had thrown Labour "under the bus" by blocking Burnham from being the party's candidate.

"I've got to keep Reform out. It's the only reason I'm voting Labour this time. I would have gone Green, but... it's too much of a risk," Ashton said.

Candidate Messaging to Voters

There was a party atmosphere as Green candidate Hannah Spencer launched her party's Gorton headquarters to around 90 cheering canvassers.

"I think people now are just ready for change," the local councillor and plumber told Reuters. "It is between us and Reform."

Spencer, 34, said the Green message could resonate with working-class voters in Denton, adding "we're not all one group that thinks and acts the same way."

REFORM SEES 'OVERWHELMING SUPPORT'

Nationally, the Labour government's main challenge is coming from Reform UK, the right-wing populist party led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, which holds only a handful of seats in parliament but has been leading in opinion polls.

At Reform's campaign headquarters in a warehouse in Denton, activists pored over computer screens, overlooked by illuminated billboards of Farage and candidate Matt Goodwin.

"It will probably go to the wire but we've got overwhelming support in large parts of the seat," Goodwin, a 44-year-old academic turned media commentator, told Reuters.

Goodwin, who argues that mass migration undermines Britain's cultural identity, was asked how his message would land in the more diverse western wards. The election had "nothing to do with race, ethnicity and religion," he said.

"If you contribute, if you play by the rules, if you're part of the hard-working majority, then you should be voting Reform," Goodwin said.

ELECTION COULD SPELL 'DISASTER' FOR STARMER

Green and Labour candidates criticised Reform's politics as divisive, but disagreed on who was best placed to stop it.

"This is a choice between Labour and Reform," Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia told Reuters after chatting to pensioners over cups of tea at a community centre.

"The Greens say a lot but they deliver very, very little."

Leadership Risk Scenarios

Rob Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, said a Labour loss would be a "disaster" for Starmer, who recently survived a leadership crisis that may reignite after local elections in May.

"Not typical mid-term blues," Ford said, "but signs of an existential crisis."

(Additional reporting by Alistair Smout; Editing by Alex Richardson)