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    1. Home
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    3. >Goldman Sachs expects ECB rate hikes in April and June as inflation concerns mount
    Finance

    Goldman Sachs Expects ECB Rate Hikes in April and June as Inflation Concerns Mount

    Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®

    Posted on March 23, 2026

    1 min read

    Last updated: March 23, 2026

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    Tags:FinanceBankingmonetary policyInflationMarkets

    Quick Summary

    Goldman Sachs now anticipates two 25 basis‑point ECB rate hikes in April and June amid mounting inflation risks tied to Middle East energy shocks, reversing its earlier expectation of steady rates.

    Goldman Sachs Sees ECB Hiking Rates in April and June on Inflation Concerns

    Goldman Sachs Revises ECB Rate Hike Forecast Amid Inflation Risks

    Expected Rate Hikes in April and June

    March 23 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Monday it expects the European Central Bank to deliver two 25 basis point interest rate hikes in April and June, joining peers J.P.Morgan and Barclays as policymakers signal inflation risks driven by the Middle East war.

    Previous Forecasts and Policy Stance

    The brokerage previously expected the central bank to maintain rates steady throughout this year.

    ECB’s March Policy Meeting and Outlook

    At its March policy meeting, the ECB left interest rates unchanged but indicated that it was closely watching growth and inflation risks posed by surging oil prices and was ready to act if necessary.

    (Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

    References

    • European Central Bank holds rates unchanged as energy shock from Iran war causes massive uncertainty
    • ECB Rate Hike Probability: 60% by June on Oil at $119

    Table of Contents

    • Goldman Sachs Revises ECB Rate Hike Forecast Amid Inflation Risks
    • Expected Rate Hikes in April and June
    • Previous Forecasts and Policy Stance
    • ECB’s March Policy Meeting and Outlook

    Key Takeaways

    • •Goldman Sachs forecasts ECB rate hikes in April and June, joining peers as inflation concerns escalate due to higher oil prices (apnews.com).
    • •Prior to this, Goldman had expected no rate changes this year; the shift reflects heightened inflation uncertainty from the Iran‑Middle East conflict (apnews.com).
    • •

    Frequently Asked Questions about Goldman Sachs expects ECB rate hikes in April and June as inflation concerns mount

    1Why does Goldman Sachs expect ECB rate hikes?

    Goldman Sachs expects ECB rate hikes due to persistent inflation risks, especially from rising oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict.

    2When does Goldman Sachs predict the ECB will raise rates?

    Goldman Sachs predicts the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both April and June.

    Markets now assign a roughly 60% probability to an ECB rate hike by June, driven by rising oil prices and 0.5 percentage‑point inflation pressure according to Goldman models (ainvest.com)
    3
    Did the ECB change its policy at the March meeting?

    At its March meeting, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged but signaled readiness to act if inflation pressures intensify.

    4What factors are influencing the ECB's rate decisions?

    Key factors include inflation risks driven by surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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