Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 5, 2026
2 min readLast updated: April 2, 2026
Add as preferred source on GoogleGoldman Sachs warns that if oil prices spike temporarily to $100/barrel amid Iran conflict, global growth could slow by 0.4 pp and inflation rise by 0.7 pp. Their baseline sees moderate impacts: growth down ~0.1 pp, inflation up ~0.2 pp.
March 5 (Reuters) - A temporary surge in oil prices to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage point, Goldman Sachs analysts said on Thursday, as a widening conflict in Iran chokes off vital Middle East oil and gas flows.
Under its baseline forecast, Goldman expects oil prices to increase a bit further before moderating to $76 per barrel on average in the first quarter of 2026 and $65 in the fourth quarter.
In an upside scenario, it expects oil prices to rise to about $100 per barrel, before normalizing over the course of 2026.
(Reporting by Akriti Shah and Siddarth S in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)
According to Goldman Sachs, a temporary jump in oil prices to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage point.
A spike to $100 per barrel could raise global headline inflation by 0.7 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs.
Monetary policy is expected to remain largely unaffected under the baseline, but could become more hawkish if oil prices stay elevated.
Oil exporters such as Canada and several Latin American countries may benefit from increased oil prices.
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